Introduction
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its most recent assessment reports, has underscored the urgency of countries reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 50% over pre-industrial temperatures by 2030.
In Post 63 Climate Scorecard Country Managers were asked to rate their country’s chance of making this goal, and present an analysis of their country’s current ability to reach this goal. They used the following five-point scale as a basis for their rating.
—A: The country will exceed the 2030 50% goal.
—B: The country will reach the 2030 50% goal.
—C: The country will come close to reaching the 2030 50% goal.
—D: The country will fail to reach the 2030 50% goal.
—E: Other (Please Specify)
They then conducted an analysis of their country’s chances of reaching the rating point they selected. The analysis covers the following points: the degree to which fossil fuels will be phased out an replaced by renewables; the policies that their government has in place to support (or not) the transition from fossil fuels to renewables; and the role that the private sector will play in determining the country’s emissions future.
Close to half of the countries covered by Climate Scorecard should reach the 2030 goal. However the ability of many of these countries to reach this goal is contingent on improved implementation of climate policies and programs. In addition, just over half of the countries we cover will not reach the 2030 goal, some failing to do so by a wide margin, which is cause for concern.
The Table below highlights the ratings for each country. Complete Country Reports follow.
Table: Rating the Ability of Countries to Reduce Emissions by 50% by 2030
| Country | Rating |
| Australia |
|
| Brazil |
|
| Canada |
|
| China |
|
| European Union |
|
| France |
|
| India |
|
| Indonesia |
|
| Japan |
|
| Mexico |
|
| Nigeria |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
|
| South Africa |
|
| Spain |
|
| Turkey |
|
| United Kingdom |
|
| United States |
|
Country Reports
Australia has a revised target of reducing emissions by only 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, but even this goal may not be reached
Robyn Gulliver In June 2022, the new Australian left-wing Labor federal government committed to a revised target of reducing emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero emissions by 2050. This was an increase on the previous commitment of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels…
Brazil’s goal of reducing carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 at COP 26 is contingent on slowing the rate of deforestation in the Amazon
Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira At the 26th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26) in November ‘21, Brazil announced the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. The Brazilian government expects that, in 2050, the country will not release carbon emissions into the atmosphere. It will become carbon neutral at that time.The Ministry…
Canada Will Come Close to Reducing Its Emissions by 50% by 2030
Diane Szoller The IPCC has underscored the urgency of countries reducing their greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) by 50% over pre-industrial temperatures by 2030. Visit https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports. Canada will come close to reducing its emissions by 50% by 2030 because of the following reasons:First, Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) (March 2022) details a GGE reduction target…
China may be able to come close to a 50% 2030 reduction goal if the implementation of policy groundwork is intensified
Annette Wiedenbach The latest installment of the IPCC’s Assessment Report AR6 stipulates that countries will have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% over 1990 temperatures by 2030. Will China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, achieve this goal?While there is no crystal ball to fully predict the future of China’s emissions, the latest IPCC…
EU On Track to Achieve 50% Decrease in Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2030 if Member States Comply
Brittany Demogenes The EU has set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and has outlined the steps that will need to be taken in order to achieve this goal in its 2030 Climate Target Plan. In light of this, the EU should reach or slightly exceed the Inter-Governmental Panel on…
France will come close to reducing emissions by 50% by 2030 if it does the right things
Liana Mehring The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a synthesis of its three-part Sixth Assessment Report in March 2023. The report warns that without stronger action on climate, the world is on track to warm 2.7°C (5 °F) by 2100. This is well above the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5 °C,…
India plans to reach the goal of 50% emissions reduction by 2030 over pre-industrial levels
Pooran Chandra Pandey Hypothesis: India will reach the 50% emissions reduction goal by 2030. Analysis: India updated its nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It submitted the same to UNFCCC in August 2022, stating its commitment to reduce the emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 45% by 2030, from 2005 levels; achieve 50% cumulative…
Indonesia will likely fail to reduce its emissions by 50% by 2030
Netra Naik Indonesia has set an increased climate target of reducing its carbon emissions by 32% below the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) by utilizing its resources and by 43% below BAU with international financial support. The country hopes to reach net zero emissions by 2060 but has not communicated it explicitly in its long-term strategy. The…
Japan will fail to reduce its emissions over 2019 levels by 50% by 2030
Takeda Kazuya In October 2020, Japan declared its goal of becoming “carbon neutral by 2050”. In April 2021, Japan announced a new GHG reduction target for FY2030 of 46% below the FY13 level. In its “Green Growth Strategy,” the Government of Japan has laid a roadmap and policies for 2030 and 2050 and the 14…
Mexico will likely fail to reduce its emissions by 50% by 2030
Pablo David Necoechea Porras According to the latest assessment reports by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to pre-industrial temperatures before 2030.However, achieving a 50% greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030 is a long way for Mexico. During the 27th Conference of the Parties…
Nigeria commits to cutting GHG emissions by 20% by 2030 instead of 50%
Juwonlo Michael As the world faces the urgent challenge of mitigating climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set a goal of achieving a reduction of 50% over pre-industrial levels in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Nigeria, a country that is both rich in natural resources and heavily reliant on fossil…
Saudi Arabia will not meet its goal of reducing emissions by 50% over 1990 levels by 2030
Abeer Abdulkareem, Amgad Ellaboudy Saudi Arabia is at risk of not meeting its goal of reducing emissions to 50% over 1990 by 2030. Key factors, such as fossil fuel reliance, government policies, and private sector engagement, are becoming hurdles to enabling the country to reach this goal. Saudi Arabia’s high dependence on fossil fuels and…
South Africa will fail to reduce its emissions by 50% over pre-industrial levels by 2030
Rugare Zhou According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates, South Africa’s climate targets fail to reach the 2030 50% goal. This is because South Africa’s climate change policies and commitments must improve in order to meet the Paris Agreement of 1.5C° temperature limit. South Africa’s electricity is mainly produced from coal. As a result,…
Spain will help the EU Come Close towards Reaching the EU 50% Emission Reduction Goal
Sean Lewis Spain will not reach a 50% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030. However, it will contribute towards coming close to meeting the 50% emission reduction threshold as a collective component of the wider EU bloc. According to Spain’s objectives laid out in its Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP), adopted in 2019,…
Turkey will fail to reach its goal of reducing its emissions by 50% by 2030
Semih Ergur The chance of Turkey meeting the 50% reduction of the (BAU) business-as-usual emission levels is almost zero based on the latest official announcement of the Government and the ongoing policies. Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions stood at around 523.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020, as per the latest available data, which…
New Data Suggests the UK Will Fail to Reach Its Ambitious 2030 68% Emissions Reduction Goal
Michael Thompson The UK has committed to reducing carbon emissions by 68% by 2030; although this is still a worthy goal, new government data suggests that the UK will not meet its legal climate targets by 2030 (The Guardian, 30 March). Indeed, government calculations suggest that only 92% of the reduction emissions required to meet…
The US Needs to do More if it is to Reduce Emissions by 50% by 2030
Dave Schroeder In the past ten years, both climate action and policy have been turbulent within the United States. From exiting the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 to re-entering under the Biden administration, it is challenging to guess which way the United States may go when addressing Climate Change in the near future. In August…