Mexico will likely fail to reduce its emissions by 50% by 2030

According to the latest assessment reports by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to pre-industrial temperatures before 2030.

However, achieving a 50% greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030 is a long way for Mexico. During the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Mexico pledged to increase its unconditional NDC target from 22% to 35% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. Mexico presented its updated NDC to the Convention, including the following priorities: doubling the production of clean energy by adding 105 GW, capturing 98% of methane gas emissions in oil wells, adding two million hectares of new protected natural areas, reforesting 1.5 million hectares with over 1.1 billion trees through the Sembrando Vida program, proposing the construction of hydrogen plants, and implementing an ambitious strategy for energy efficiency, electromobility, and electrification of transportation.

Mexico also presented the Sonora Development Plan, which aims to create a sustainable ecosystem to attract investment in solar plants for renewable energy and promote the lithium industry for the automotive sector. Mexico emphasized the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C this decade and highlighted its efforts to boost climate ambition, including the Implementation Strategy for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Mexico-U.S. Transportation Electrification Task Force, and the National Action Plan on Gender and Climate Change. Mexico reiterated its commitment to focusing on human rights, gender equality, interculturality, and intergenerational equity in all climate action.

These initiatives suggest that Mexico is trying to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources. However, Mexico will likely face several challenges meeting its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Some of the potential challenges that Mexico may encounter include:

  • Financing: Implementing the measures needed to achieve the 35% reduction target will require significant investment, and Mexico may need help securing the necessary funding.
  • Technical capacity: Implementing measures such as capturing methane gas emissions and constructing hydrogen plants will require technical expertise and capacity, which may be limited in Mexico.
  • Political will: The successful implementation of the measures required to meet the 2030 target will depend on Mexico’s government’s political will and commitment, as well as the cooperation of other key stakeholders.
  • International cooperation: Meeting the 2030 targets will require international cooperation and support, particularly from developed countries, which may be reluctant to provide the necessary resources or assistance.

Mexico’s commitment to enhancing its NDC target and implementing a range of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is estimable; However, Mexico has a significant distance to go in achieving its greenhouse gas reduction target of 50% by 2030. And several challenges will need to be addressed in order to meet the 2030 target successfully. Overall, Mexico may make progress toward its goals by 2023, but it is also possible that more time will be needed to achieve them fully.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Mexico Country Manager Pablo David Necoechea Porras


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