Australia’s emissions are expected to decline modestly by the end of 2026, continuing the downward trend seen in 2025.Australia’s emissions are expected to decline modestly by the end of 2026, continuing the downward trend seen in 2025. National emissions for the year to June 2025 fell by around 2.2%, and current policy and investment settings…

By the end of 2026, Brazil will show an approximate 8% reduction in total GHG emissions compared to the average level of the post-2020 years.The Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) from the Climate Observatory shows that Brazil’s emissions profile has historically been dominated by land-use change and deforestation, followed by the energy…

Earlier 2026 projections to reduce emissions by 20% below the 2005 level are now expected to reach 16%, continuing 2023 trends unless major policy changes occur.Canada issued its second Progress Report on Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan under the Canadian Carbon Neutrality Accountability Act in December 2025.  Federal government data is always reported two years…

As China enters the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter stands at a historic inflection point. Following a period of “plateaued” emissions through late 2025, the 2026 outlook suggests that China is no longer just slowing its growth—it is beginning a structural descent. While the central government maintains…

Modest emissions reductions are forecast for 2026, fulfilling Paris Agreement obligations, while policy intensification is needed to reconcile climate ambition with energy security and economic resilience amid escalating geopolitical turbulence.                            The European Union is poised to continue its emissions-reduction trajectory in 2026, building on the significant progress documented in the European Environment Agency’s (EEA) latest…

France is not on a trajectory compatible with a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.France’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline slightly by the end of 2026, but not at a pace consistent with Paris Agreement objectives. National inventory data indicate that territorial emissions decreased from about…

While a further decline in emissions is expected in 2026, it will be modest and fragile. Germany looks set to cut emissions again in 2026, mostly thanks to rapid growth in wind and solar. But the drop is small — 2025 only just met short-term limits — and policy rollbacks plus weak progress in transport…

India’s total GHG emissions are projected to rise modestly by 1-1.5% in 2026, reaching approximately 3.25-3.27 billion tonnes CO₂e from 2025 levels, driven by continued economic growth but moderated by aggressive renewable energy expansion and efficiency gains. Total Emissions Projection India’s fossil fuel CO₂ emissions grew by just 1.4% in 2025 to 3.22 billion tonnes,…

Stabilization Without Transformation. Without an accelerated coal phase-out, faster renewable deployment, and durable land-use enforcement, emissions reductions will remain fragile and insufficient to place the country on a Paris-aligned pathway.Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory heading into 2026 reflects a familiar pattern. Incremental progress in land use governance is being offset by continued dependence on fossil…

Japan’s Emissions Decline Accelerates, but Experts Warn 2026 Will Be a Critical Turning Point for Paris Alignment For the first time in more than three decades, Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen below their lowest level in more than three decades, marking a significant milestone in the country’s climate transition. Yet analysts caution that the…

Mexico’s current policy direction appears strong enough to slow emissions growth, but not yet strong enough to guarantee an economy-wide drop by 2026, especially given rising energy demand, growing transport activity, and structural dependence on fossil fuels.The Paris Climate Agreement sets a global expectation that countries must reach carbon neutrality by 2050 or cut greenhouse…

Nigeria’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by approximately 1-3% by the end of 2026. This forecast emerges from a fundamental tension at the heart of the nation’s policy: a set of ambitious, detailed climate commitments exists in direct conflict with immediate economic plans centered on fossil fuel expansion. While the country has positioned…

Saudi Arabia’s emissions are expected to be higher at the end of 2026, reaching around 713 million tonnes.Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory, driven by its continued dependence on oil production, consumption, and exports, shows no sign of bending downward in the coming decade. On the contrary, its emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO2e in…

The total change from policy shifts estimates suggests a notable reduction in 2026 as the country moves toward its 2030 goal. South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to be on a downward trajectory after peaking in 2024. However, the country remains heavily reliant on coal.  Two policy shifts, including the carbon tax phase two and…

Based on current trends, total emissions will continue to decline modestly, but not at the pace required to meet mid- and long-term goals.As of now, there are no officially published final figures for Spain’s total greenhouse-gas emissions in 2025 from the national statistical agency (INE) or the National Inventory — the most recent complete validated…

There is little evidence of a structural break that would put total emissions on a firm downward path by 2026.Türkiye’s latest official greenhouse gas inventory shows a clear long-term pattern: emissions have more than doubled since 1990 and were still rising in the most recent reporting year. Energy remains the dominant source, accounting for roughly…

 Forecast: By the end of 2026, UK territorial emissions are expected to be approximately 3–4% lower than in 2024. In 2024, the United Kingdom recorded a renewed decline in territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reinforcing its long-term decarbonization narrative while also exposing the limits of progress achieved so far. Provisional government statistics show total emissions of 371 MtCO₂e, down 4% from…

Given the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is evident that our national output would increase substantially compared to recent years.By the end of 2026, I expect the United States’ total emissions to increase markedly. Based on the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is…