Given the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is evident that our national output would increase substantially compared to recent years.By the end of 2026, I expect the United States’ total emissions to increase markedly. Based on the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is...
Forecast: By the end of 2026, UK territorial emissions are expected to be approximately 3–4% lower than in 2024. In 2024, the United Kingdom recorded a renewed decline in territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reinforcing its long-term decarbonization narrative while also exposing the limits of progress achieved so far. Provisional government statistics show total emissions of 371 MtCO₂e, down 4% from...
There is little evidence of a structural break that would put total emissions on a firm downward path by 2026.Türkiye’s latest official greenhouse gas inventory shows a clear long-term pattern: emissions have more than doubled since 1990 and were still rising in the most recent reporting year. Energy remains the dominant source, accounting for roughly...
Based on current trends, total emissions will continue to decline modestly, but not at the pace required to meet mid- and long-term goals.As of now, there are no officially published final figures for Spain’s total greenhouse-gas emissions in 2025 from the national statistical agency (INE) or the National Inventory — the most recent complete validated...
The total change from policy shifts estimates suggests a notable reduction in 2026 as the country moves toward its 2030 goal. South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to be on a downward trajectory after peaking in 2024. However, the country remains heavily reliant on coal. Two policy shifts, including the carbon tax phase two and...
Saudi Arabia’s emissions are expected to be higher at the end of 2026, reaching around 713 million tonnes.Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory, driven by its continued dependence on oil production, consumption, and exports, shows no sign of bending downward in the coming decade. On the contrary, its emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO2e in...
Nigeria’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by approximately 1-3% by the end of 2026. This forecast emerges from a fundamental tension at the heart of the nation’s policy: a set of ambitious, detailed climate commitments exists in direct conflict with immediate economic plans centered on fossil fuel expansion. While the country has positioned...
Mexico’s current policy direction appears strong enough to slow emissions growth, but not yet strong enough to guarantee an economy-wide drop by 2026, especially given rising energy demand, growing transport activity, and structural dependence on fossil fuels.The Paris Climate Agreement sets a global expectation that countries must reach carbon neutrality by 2050 or cut greenhouse...
Japan’s Emissions Decline Accelerates, but Experts Warn 2026 Will Be a Critical Turning Point for Paris Alignment For the first time in more than three decades, Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen below their lowest level in more than three decades, marking a significant milestone in the country’s climate transition. Yet analysts caution that the...
Stabilization Without Transformation. Without an accelerated coal phase-out, faster renewable deployment, and durable land-use enforcement, emissions reductions will remain fragile and insufficient to place the country on a Paris-aligned pathway.Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory heading into 2026 reflects a familiar pattern. Incremental progress in land use governance is being offset by continued dependence on fossil...
