If Canada is to align with the global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which aims to phase out fossil fuels in line with Paris Agreement targets, Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) target of a 45% reduction below 2005 levels requires an immediate overhaul and strong implementation.

Canada has made progress, yet often struggles to sustain it in transitioning from fossil fuels, while aiming for net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2050, as it’s the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer. Steps underway include phasing out coal (by 2030), implementing industrial carbon pricing, and a ZEV mandate. Electricity emissions dropped by 59% (as of 2024), and significant investments exist in renewable energy and clean technologies. Even so, progress is slow, and oil production expansion continues to outpace climate goals. As of early 2026, federal projections show Canada falls short of its 2030 climate goals.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers reports that about 95% of Canada’s oil production (including the oil sands) and all current natural gas production occur in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. In 2025, YTD average natural gas production was 19.0 Bcf/d.  In 2024, YTD average oil production totaled 5.9 million Bcf/d. Last year, the industry contributed over $85 billion to Canada’s GDP, 450,000 jobs, over 20% of Canada’s value of exports, and between 2022 and 2024, and $116 billion in taxes and royalties for governments nationwide. 

IEA data – Domestic energy supply, Canada, 2024 

IEA data – Final consumption, Canada, 2023

IEA reports net energy exports were 48.2% of 2024 total energy production. 

If Canada is to align with the global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which aims to phase out fossil fuels in line with Paris Agreement targets, Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) target of a 45% reduction below 2005 levels requires an immediate overhaul and strong implementation. Canada committed to 45% to 50% below 2005 levels by 2035 to the UNFCCC (February 2025), to achieve NZE by 2050; reports aren’t available as yet.

Ending the production of fossil fuels –

The Climate Action Tracker points out that Canada’s current policies pave the way for 4°C of warming. Canada’s 2030 ERP requires fast-tracking stronger measures, including more ambitious 2030 targets to be 1.5°C compatible, faster implementation, and immediate policy to end financing for fossil fuel companies and related infrastructure. 

Canada’s ZEV mandate for new light-duty vehicle sales, targeting 100% zero-emissions by 2035, is a step in the right direction; however, changes are expected. Canada’s industrial carbon pricing scheme needs intensity standards for all industry emissions, not just those that exceed current standards. Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations are driving the transition to low-carbon power for a fully decarbonized grid by 2035. Building programs driving energy efficiency and electrification also need more stringent building codes, a phase-out of oil heating by 2028 in construction, and a fossil gas phase-out. New methane regulations to lower emissions by at least 75% below 2014 levels by 2035, beginning in 2028, need to start earlier. The regulatory framework to cap emissions from the fossil fuel sector, at 35%-38% below 2019 levels by 2030, needs to align with a fossil fuel production phase-out.

Canada must stop approving new oil and gas projects, end subsidies, not just “inefficient” subsidies, and establish a long-term 2030 vision that prioritizes proven, cost-effective solutions like renewables and electrification as a decarbonization base, limiting reliance on uncertain and costly CCS, which only continues to entrench carbon-intensive infrastructure. Lastly, Canada must strengthen its ‘just transition’ policy – the Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act’s plan released in February. Critics state the plan offers little regarding measures beyond existing policies and lacks targets, timelines, or consistency to evaluate progress with Canada’s climate agenda. CBC media reports the plan lands amid: U.S. tariffs, rapid AI advances enabling automation, federal budget cuts, and the acceleration of greener manufacturing and clean tech, such as Electric Vehicles.

A phase-out of fossil fuel production will support changes in Canadian consumption.  

Canada’s transition to renewable energy with an NZE electricity grid 100% target by 2035, and upgrades to grid infrastructure are expected to handle doubled demand by 2050. Canada also has a unique opportunity to develop tidal and river-stream technologies as an emerging industry for the grid.

Canada’s ZEV mandate for all new light-duty vehicles is 100% by 2035, but is under review. Targets to eliminate fossil fuels in public transit include electrifying fleets – 100% zero-emission bus sales by 2040 and transition funds for transit agencies to electric, supporting broader net-zero on-road transportation goals by 2050.  2050 needs to be 2030. Canada also needs strong standards to reduce emissions from air travel. There is no heat pump sales target, but projections indicate a need for 100% by 2035 to meet NZE by 2050. Studies suggest moving from 1.05 million homes in 2024 to 21.3 million by 2050. Canada’s Greener Homes Affordability Program needs to expand its Manitoba pilot (begun last September) to all provinces by 2028 and add to its retrofit incentive options. 

Addressing the export and import of fossil fuels –

Crude oil exports reached over 4.0 MMb/d in 2023, with over 97% going to the USA, 92% of it transported by pipeline; the rest went to Europe and Asia. Due to the regional nature of Canadian refining markets, Canada also imports some crude oil, 490 Mb/d in 2023, i.e., the USA (54%), Saudi Arabia (11%), Iraq (8%), and Norway (5%). 

As demand declines and trade relations shift, Canada must resolve its interlinked energy trade dependence on the USA, i.e., stricter regulations, pipeline modifications, and, inevitably, an East-West clean electricity grid to allow provinces to share renewable power more smoothly. Export Development Canada will need to redirect their fossil fuels portfolio to non-emitting energy sources. Electrification will need to expand quickly to eliminate the need for fuel and further imports. Exports are expected to decline given shifting global demand. 

Measuring Canada’s energy use is primarily managed by Statistics Canada and Natural Resources Canada. Key metrics include gigajoules/thousand dollars of production (intensity), sectoral consumption (TWh), and per capita usage, often analyzed using the National Energy Use Database to track efficiency trends.

Natural Resources Canada oversees Canada’s efforts to advance a low-carbon economy, improve energy efficiency, advance the transition to an NZE economy, and ensure the safety of energy infrastructure systems.

We are forwarding our interpretation of stronger policies to support more ambitious Canada 2030 targets to address 1.5°C compatibility, to: 

Honourable Tim Hodgson P.C., M.P., Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Email – minister.ministre@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca.

Submitted by Diane Szoller, Climate Scorecard Canada Country Manager.