A path for Brazil to gradually eliminate fossil fuel use by 2030, built on three core pillars: production, consumption, and international trade.

Brazil likes to present itself to the world as a green powerhouse: it has one of the most renewable electricity mixes on the planet, with large hydropower, wind, and solar generation. But behind the image of climate leadership, the country still rests its economy on a familiar tripod: oil, diesel, and natural gas. On one hand, Brazil is among the world’s largest oil producers, exporting millions of barrels per day. On the other hand, it imports diesel and gas to keep trucks, industries, and thermal power plants running. The contradiction is obvious: the country profits from selling fuels that, when burned, intensify the climate crisis it claims to fight. In support of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, this plan outlines a possible path for Brazil to gradually eliminate fossil fuel use by 2030, built on three core pillars: production, consumption, and international trade.

Ending production: moratorium and planned decline

The first step is to acknowledge what the industry rarely says out loud: Brazil cannot keep expanding oil, gas, and coal and still comply with the Paris Agreement. The plan proposes an immediate moratorium on fossil fuel frontier expansion:

Suspend new licensing rounds for oil and gas exploration blocks, onshore and offshore.  

Block the opening of new coal mines.  

Ban the construction of new coal-fired, fuel oil-fired, and diesel-fired power plants.

This moratorium would be formalized by presidential decree and then converted into law by Congress. Oversight would fall to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), and the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA). But stopping expansion is only half the journey. The other half is planning the decline of production:

Reduce oil and gas output by at least 30% by 2030, taking 2025 as the production peak.  

End coal production for power generation entirely by 2028.  

Prohibit state-owned enterprises and public banks from financing new fossil projects and redirect funds toward renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transmission networks.

These goals would be set by law, with annual monitoring of production by ANP and audits by the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU). No transition, however, will succeed if it abandons workers. That is why the plan includes creating a National Just Transition Fund, financed by a tax on extraordinary oil profits and by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. This fund would support:

Retraining programs for oil, gas, and coal workers.  

Regional transition plans in areas with refineries, power plants, and mines.  

Support for renewable energy cooperatives and new economic activities in regions currently dependent on the fossil fuel chain.

Ending consumption: transport, electricity, and industry on a new path

If production must fall, consumption must follow. Here, the focus turns to the main culprits: transport, electricity generation, and industry. In the transport sector, the plan calls for a major shift:

Ban the sale of new fossil fuel-only light vehicles from 2030, with interim targets for the share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in new registrations.  

Prohibit the registration of new diesel-powered urban buses from 2028, gradually renewing fleets with electric or renewable-fuel buses by 2035.  

Build a national charging network for electric vehicles along highways and in urban areas.  

Rebalance freight transport by expanding railways and waterways, reducing the dependence on diesel trucks.  

Strengthen the biofuels policy, progressively increasing biodiesel blending in diesel and supporting second-generation ethanol and biogas/biomethane.

Responsibility would be shared by the Ministries of Transport, Cities, Mines and Energy, and the National Traffic Council (Contran), with targets tracked through diesel and gasoline consumption and the composition of new vehicle fleets. In electricity, the idea is to stop using fossil fuel power plants as a permanent crutch for the system:

Shut down coal-fired power plants by 2028 and oil- and diesel-fired plants by 2030.  

Review contracts for inflexible thermal plants and replace them with renewable generation and storage solutions.  

Prioritize wind, solar, biomass, and small hydropower in all power auctions.  

Expand transmission lines to integrate regions with high renewable potential.  

Invest in energy efficiency and demand response to reduce consumption peaks.

Brazil’s power mix is already mostly renewable, but the plan aims to make it 100% renewable in practice, without relying on fossil fuel plants on a routine basis. In industry and buildings, the agenda revolves around efficiency and fuel switching:

Mandatory energy efficiency standards for public, residential, and commercial buildings.  

Credit lines and tax incentives to help companies replace gas- and oil-fired boilers and equipment with efficient electric technologies, such as heat pumps.  

Promotion of renewable heat in industrial processes wherever technically feasible.  

Retrofit programs for public buildings and high-consumption industrial facilities.

The goal is to reduce fossil fuel use year after year per square meter of buildings and per unit of industrial output.

International trade: brakes on imports, gradual exit from exports

The third pillar of the plan addresses a sensitive aspect of Brazil’s economy: its role as an importer of diesel and gas while at the same time a major exporter of crude oil. On the import side, the goal is to cut diesel and natural gas imports by at least 80% by 2030, through:

Electrification of parts of passenger and freight fleets.  

Expansion of railways and waterways for freight.  

Replacement of gas-fired power plants with renewables and storage.

On the export side, the proposal is to step away from the “petro-exporter” model gradually:

Set annual reduction targets for crude oil exports starting in 2027.  

Avoid new investments that would lock in long-term fossil refining capacity.  

Align Brazil’s foreign policy with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, advocating in international forums for an end to global expansion of oil, gas, and coal.

Who this plan is addressed to

The proposal is directed to Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, at the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, a central figure in coordinating Brazil’s climate policy. Her role would be to lead, within the federal government, the debate on a national commitment to ending the fossil fuel era, and to represent the country in the construction of a future Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. The plan is openly ambitious: turning the page on fossil fuels in less than a decade. In times of climate emergency, it is less an exaggeration and more a reality check. The core message is blunt: continuing to expand oil, gas, and coal is not compatible with the future Brazil says it wants — and there is a concrete roadmap to make this change happen.

This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager, Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira.