China stands at a critical juncture in its climate journey. While the nation leads the world in renewable energy installation, its heavy reliance on coal remains the primary obstacle to the goals of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. To align with a pathway, China must shift from “peaking before 2030” to an aggressive phase-out.
1. The Fossil Fuel Landscape: 2026 Snapshot
As of early 2026, China remains the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, though structural shifts are finally taking hold.
- Production: China produces roughly 4.7 billion tonnes of coal annually. Domestic crude oil production remains steady at approximately 200 million tonnes, while natural gas production continues to grow.
- Consumption: Fossil fuels still account for approximately 75% of China’s total energy mix. Coal alone accounts for over 55% of primary energy consumption.
- Imports/Exports: China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), sourcing over 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas from abroad. It is a net importer of coal, primarily from Indonesia and Russia.
2. The Phase-Out Plan: Non-Proliferation and Just Transition
Ending Production: The “Mining Sunset” Initiative
China will implement a moratorium on all new coal mine approvals and offshore oil exploration, effective immediately.
- Mechanism: A “Supply-Side Reform 2.0” will mandate the closure of all “zombie” mines and high-carbon intensity oil fields.
- Responsibility: The National Energy Administration (NEA) and the Ministry of Natural Resources.
- Measurement: Annual reduction targets in domestic extraction volumes, verified by independent satellite monitoring and the National Bureau of Statistics.
Ending Consumption: The “Green Grid” Mandate
The plan transitions China from a “dual control” system of energy intensity to a hard cap on total carbon emissions.
- Mechanism: By 2030, coal-fired power plants will be relegated to emergency backup roles (peak-shaving) rather than baseload power. This will be supported by a $2 trillion investment in Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) and ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission lines to bring western wind and solar to eastern cities.
- Responsibility: State Grid Corporation of China and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
- Measurement: Percentage of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy mix (Target: 50% by 2030).
Ending Imports and Exports: The “Sovereign Energy” Shift
China will phase out long-term supply contracts for fossil fuels and replace them with technology-sharing agreements for green hydrogen and battery materials.
- Mechanism: Implementing a “Carbon Border Adjustment” on energy imports and ending all state-backed financing for overseas fossil fuel infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative.
- Responsibility: Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
- Measurement: Customs data showing a 15% year-over-year decline in fossil fuel import volumes.
Proposal Submission
To: Zhao Chenxin
Title: Vice Chairman
Organization: National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of the People’s Republic of China
Email: bgt@ndrc.gov.cn (General Office)
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard China Country Manager Vincent Mao.