Delmaria Richards

Japan Continues to Cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions, but Major Challenges Remain

For the first time since greenhouse gas inventories were introduced in 1990, Japan’s annual emissions have fallen below one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), marking a significant milestone in the country’s climate transition. It is a major political milestone for Tokyo, capping off years of incremental policy gains, but the celebration will likely be short-lived. To meet its looming 2030 and 2050 climate mandates, the country now faces a much steeper uphill climb.

Joint data from MOE and NIES puts Japan’s net greenhouse gas emissions for FY2024 at 994 million tonnes. It’s a meaningful drop. That is a 1.9% drop from the previous year and a 28.7% absolute reduction against the government’s FY2013 climate baseline. MOE notes that the decline was driven by reduced energy consumption, especially in manufacturing, and further decarbonization of the power sector, where renewable and nuclear energy together now account for more than 30% of the electricity mix. For a clearer view, the table below highlights how Japan’s emissions have trended downward over the past decade, culminating in the FY2024 milestone.

Japan’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals (FY2013–FY2024)
Fiscal Year	Total Emissions (MtCO₂e)			Change from Previous Year		Change from FY2013 Baseline	Notes
FY2013		1,394.5			—	Baseline	Pre-Paris Agreement levels
FY2020		~1,150			↓	~18% below FY2013	COVID-related industrial slowdown
FY2023		1,012.8			−4.0%	−27.1%	Renewables + nuclear restarts
FY2024			994.0		−1.9%	−28.7%		First year below 1 billion tonnes

Source: Ministry of the Environment & National Institute for Environmental Studies (2026)

The data in this report come primarily from MOE and NIES, which publish Japan’s official greenhouse gas inventory under the UNFCCC. Additional context is drawn from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Climate Action Tracker (CAT), both of which provide widely recognized assessments of Japan’s climate performance.

The structural reality of Japan’s carbon footprint hasn’t fundamentally changed, however. Energy use across electricity generation, transport, industry, and buildings continues to account for around 85% of Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions, tethered heavily to imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal, and oil to power its heavy manufacturing, transport, and commercial grids. By contrast, non-energy sectors like agriculture (mostly livestock and rice paddy methane) and waste management are minor players, combining for just over 5% of the national total. Although these sectors remain important, their contribution is modest compared with emissions from energy production and industrial activity.

One of the brighter spots in the new data is a 4.8% year-on-year drop in fluorinated gas (F-gas) emissions, which fell to 32.2 MtCO₂e. This marks a steady multi-year decline since the government tightened its grip via the revised Act on Rational Use and Proper Management of Fluorocarbons. On the removal side, Japan’s heavily forested terrain absorbed 52.3 MtCO₂e, doing the heavy lifting for the country’s carbon sinks, while experimental “blue carbon” projects in coastal seagrass beds pitched in a minor but steady 0.32 MtCO₂e.

Japan has made considerable progress since signing the Paris Agreement in 2016. At that time, annual emissions exceeded 1.3 billion tonnes of CO₂e, and fossil fuels dominated electricity generation following the shutdown of most nuclear reactors after the Fukushima accident. Since then, emissions have steadily declined as renewable energy capacity has expanded, energy efficiency has improved, and several nuclear reactors have resumed operation under stricter safety standards. Overall, Japan has reduced emissions by nearly 20% since the Paris Agreement entered into force and by more than 28% compared with FY2013, clear evidence that sustained policy measures can deliver results.

Looking ahead, the path toward the 2030 milestone becomes a steep mathematical hurdle. While Japan officially benchmarks its climate goals against a 2013 baseline (targeting a 46% to 50% reduction), meeting this target would require cutting roughly 15% to 20% more emissions than in 2020. Independent assessments by Climate Action Tracker confirm that Tokyo’s current regulatory architecture is fundamentally off track to meet this pace. Therefore, existing efficiency mandates will yield gradual declines, but without a severe policy shift, Japan will fail to close the gap required by the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C pathway. Japan’s progress is real, but the pace ahead will determine whether these gains translate into long-term climate stability.

The real test for Japan comes next. Getting below one billion tonnes was achieved largely due to a temporary slowdown in industrial manufacturing and a handful of nuclear restarts. But cutting the next 20% to hit the 2030 target of a 46% reduction will require tackling deep systemic bottlenecks: an isolated regional power grid, complex land-permitting processes that stall onshore wind and solar projects, and a heavy economic reliance on coal. Tokyo has proven it can make steady, incremental progress, but avoiding an “insufficient” rating from independent climate assessments will require a far more aggressive overhaul of its domestic energy infrastructure.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Japan Country Manager Delmaria Richards.

Learn More Resources

1. Climate Action Tracker. (2024). Japan: Country summary. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/
2. International Energy Agency. (2024). Energy system of Japan. https://www.iea.org/countries/japan
3. Ministry of the Environment & National Institute for Environmental Studies. (2026, April 14). Japan’s national greenhouse gas emissions and removals in FY 2024. Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan. https://www.env.go.jp/en/press/press_01760.html
4. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (2024). National Inventory Submissions. Japan. 2024 National Inventory Document (NID) https://unfccc.int/ghg-inventories-annex-i-parties/2024