Mexico: Current Emission Levels

Miguel Angel Martinez Jr.

Mexico’s current mitigation plans slow the growth curve, but they are not yet aggressive enough to reverse it completely.

We are seven months into the year 2026. Back in January, I reported on Mexico’s ambitious climate plans for the republic. They were bold and strategic, but did they make a dent? Let’s look at where we currently stand.

Because Mexican presidential terms span six years, official published data often lags by two to three years due to the bureaucratic time required to collect, analyze, and publish national inventories. However, by combining official government baselines with international tracking tools, we can form a reliable prediction of Mexico’s current climate trajectory. Greenhouse gas emissions are on track for a minor increase of roughly 0.3% to 3.0% above 2022 inventory levels, placing current 2026 total emissions between 759,560 kt and 780,000 kt CO2e, with a best-guess estimate of roughly 769,800 kt CO2e excluding land-use sinks. Mexico’s current mitigation plans slow the growth curve, but they are not yet aggressive enough to reverse it completely. This prediction relies on data from the Mexican Government’s National GHG Inventory (INECC), cross-referenced with global tracking data from the EDGAR database and the UNFCCC NDC 3.0 portal.

In terms of sector breakdown, Energy, Agriculture, and Industry remain the three largest sources of greenhouse gases in Mexico. The Energy sector accounts for the largest share at 63.4% of total emissions, projected to range between 481,560 kt and 494,520 kt CO2e, as heatwaves and widespread air conditioning use continue to drive up summer power consumption. Agriculture accounts for the second-largest share at 18.4%, projected to range from 139,760 kt to 143,520 kt CO2e, with livestock methane and severe droughts complicating food production. Industry and Industrial Processes account for 9.6% of emissions, projected to range between 72,920 kt and 74,880 kt CO2e, with nearshoring manufacturing growth offsetting gains from low-carbon regulations. By comparison, the Waste sector represents the smallest primary reporting category, accounting for 8.6% of overall emissions, generating roughly 65,320-67,080 kt CO2e, mainly through municipal solid waste decomposition and wastewater treatment.

Looking historically, Mexico has been unable to achieve absolute greenhouse gas reductions since signing the Paris Agreement in 2016. Post-2015 national reports show a modest 2%-4% increase in overall emissions, driven by industrial expansion and structural dependence on fossil fuels for grid power and transport. While President Claudia Sheinbaum’s updated NDC 3.0 strategy has slowed emissions growth relative to business-as-usual scenarios, overall national output remains on a slight upward trajectory rather than declining.

When assessing target alignment, Mexico is severely off track for both its mid-term and long-term goals. Achieving a true 50% reduction below 2020 levels by 2030 would require capping national emissions at approximately 350,000 kt CO2e, but current 2026 levels hovering near 769,800 kt CO2e mean output is more than double that target trajectory. Similarly, while Mexico formally committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, it currently lacks the binding domestic legislation and rapid fossil fuel phase-out pathways needed to achieve true net-zero status by mid-century.

Ultimately, Mexico’s single greatest impediment to making greater emission reductions remains its energy consumption and fossil fuel infrastructure. Over 70% of national power generation relies on fossil fuels, while state energy policy continues to prioritize natural gas combined-cycle power plants and Pemex oil operations. Until grid-scale renewable expansion and transmission network upgrades become a primary national priority, economy-wide emission cuts will remain out of reach.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Mexico Country Manager Miguel Angel Martinez Jr.

Learn More Resources:

Climate Scorecard depends on support from people like you.