Türkiye’s emissions continue to increase, reflecting the challenges of balancing rapid economic development with climate mitigation.
As countries around the world strive to align their climate policies with the goals of the Paris Agreement, Türkiye presents a complex picture. The country has made notable progress in expanding renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and developing a national climate policy framework. However, the latest official greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory shows that these efforts have not yet translated into a decline in overall emissions. Instead, Türkiye’s emissions continue to increase, reflecting the challenges of balancing rapid economic development with climate mitigation.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Türkiye’s total national GHG emissions reached 584.5 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in 2024, excluding emissions and removals from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). This represents a 5.3% increase compared with 2023 and corresponds to 6.8 tonnes of CO₂e per capita. National emissions exceeded their 1990 baseline by more than two-and-a-half times. Furthermore, since Türkiye signed the Paris Agreement in 2016, total emissions have climbed by approximately 17%.
The structure of Türkiye’s emissions has remained remarkably consistent over recent decades. The energy sector is by far the dominant source, accounting for 419.9 Mt CO₂e, or 71.8% of total emissions in 2024. This category includes emissions from electricity and heat generation, manufacturing industries, transport, buildings, and fuel combustion. Although Türkiye has significantly expanded its renewable electricity capacity, particularly wind and solar power, coal and natural gas continue to supply a substantial share of electricity generation, while growing demand for transport and industrial production further drives energy-related emissions. The second-largest contributor is Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), responsible for 75.7 Mt CO₂e, representing 12.9% of national emissions. These emissions arise primarily from cement production, chemical manufacturing, and other industrial processes that release greenhouse gases independently of fuel combustion. Close behind is the agriculture sector, contributing 73.5 Mt CO₂e or 12.6% of total emissions through livestock, fertilizer use, and agricultural soils. The waste sector remains the smallest contributor, accounting for only 15.4 Mt CO₂e, equivalent to 2.6% of total emissions. Improvements in landfill gas recovery and waste management have helped limit growth in emissions from this sector.
To evaluate whether Türkiye is “on track,” one must examine the specific framework of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Türkiye does not hold a target to reduce emissions by 50% from 2020 levels by 2030, a target often cited in Western policy discussions. Instead, its updated NDC commits to a 41% reduction below a Business-As-Usual (BAU) baseline by 2030. Under official modeling, Türkiye’s emissions are projected to peak in 2038 at approximately 695 Mt CO₂e, then enter an absolute decline toward its ultimate 2053 Net-Zero target. This means that for the remainder of the 2020s, absolute emissions are expected to rise moderately. However, delaying deep reductions until the late 2030s significantly steepens the decarbonization curve required in the 2040s.
The greatest obstacle to more rapid emission reductions lies in Türkiye’s development trajectory. The country continues to experience strong growth in industrial production, infrastructure development, and electricity demand. Heavy industries such as cement, iron and steel, and chemicals remain central to economic development and are inherently difficult to decarbonize. Meanwhile, transport emissions continue to rise as vehicle ownership and freight movement increase. Although renewable energy capacity is expanding rapidly, fossil fuels still play a significant role in ensuring energy security and meeting growing demand.
Türkiye therefore stands at an important crossroads.
The institutional groundwork is being laid. With the National Climate Change Mitigation Strategy (2024–2030) in motion and a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) taking shape, market mechanisms are aligning with low-carbon objectives. However, policy frameworks alone cannot lower emissions. Turning the tide will require accelerating clean energy deployment, unlocking international climate finance, and delivering targeted industrial decarbonization well before the 2038 peak.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkiye Country Manager Ipek Gulkaya-Tasgin.