The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty provides a framework for a strategy to phase out fossil fuels in Nigeria.
For decades, Nigeria has been defined by its oil—first as a producer, then as a paradoxical importer of its own refined products. Today, that paradox is finally unraveling. The Dangote Refinery now supplies more than 60 percent of the nation’s petrol, and import volumes have plunged to nine-year lows. This moment of energy transformation presents an unprecedented opportunity to embrace the global transition rather than resist it. This plan, aligned with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, charts a pathway to phase out fossil fuel production and consumption by 2030 while ensuring that no community, worker, or region is left behind.
Nigeria’s Fossil Fuel Landscape in 2026
Any credible plan must begin with an honest assessment of where Nigeria stands today. The Dangote Refinery, with its 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity, has fundamentally altered the nation’s fuel supply architecture. In February 2026, the refinery supplied 36.5 million liters of petrol per day, accounting for 64 percent of national consumption. Total national petrol consumption currently averages 56.9 million liters per day, alongside 19.2 million liters of diesel and 3.5 million liters of aviation fuel. The import picture has shifted equally dramatically: petrol imports fell to approximately 50,000 barrels per day in February, the lowest level in at least nine years and a two-thirds decline from the same period last year.
Yet despite these shifts in liquid fuel, Nigeria’s electricity access crisis persists. An estimated 88 million Nigerians lack reliable grid access, and diesel generators remain the backup power source of choice for businesses and households alike. This paradox frames the just transition challenge: how to displace fossil fuels while simultaneously expanding energy access. The Rural Electrification Agency’s ambitious 2026 electrification program, which has already secured ₦100 billion to solarize public institutions and plans more than 500 new electrification projects nationwide, provides the foundation for addressing this challenge.
Ending Fossil Fuel Production
Nigeria must declare an immediate moratorium on new oil exploration licenses and adopt a managed decline strategy for existing fields, aligned with Paris Agreement 1.5°C pathways. The Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, in coordination with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, will cease issuing new exploration licenses, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas, while developing a production decline schedule to phase out extraction by 2030. This approach finds philosophical support in recent remarks by Nigeria’s OPEC governor, Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, who urged national oil companies to “recalibrate their compass” from a maximum-output model to a sustainable one centered on near-zero emissions. “We need to use oil and gas to get out of oil and gas,” he argued, emphasizing that revenues from current production must be reinvested in the transition. Success will be measured by zero new exploration licenses issued after 2026 and year-on-year percentage reductions in crude oil production, reported quarterly by the NUPRC and verified through satellite monitoring.
Ending Fossil Fuel Consumption
The displacement of fossil fuels must be accelerated through massive deployment of renewable energy and demand-side management, anchored by the Rural Electrification Agency’s 2026 electrification program. The REA’s budget proposal of ₦170 billion provides the blueprint, with the centerpiece being the ₦100 billion National Public Sector Solarization Initiative, which will deploy hybrid mini-grids to power ministries, departments, and agencies nationwide. The National Hospital Abuja serves as a proof of concept, where solar infrastructure has ensured an uninterrupted electricity supply while slashing operational energy costs. Beyond public institutions, the REA will execute over 500 electrification projects in 2026, including grid extensions for communities near existing infrastructure, renewable-powered mini-grids for agrarian settlements, and solar home systems for remote areas. These efforts align with Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, which commits to a 47 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 and a 60 percent cut in methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 2035.
Complementing this renewable push, the Federal Ministry of Power will introduce fuel-efficiency standards for vehicles, coupled with a phased ban on the import of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, while the National Automotive Design and Development Council will develop incentives for electric-vehicle assembly. Progress will be tracked through the percentage of renewable energy in the national grid mix, REA deployment metrics, and national petrol and diesel consumption data published monthly by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
Ending Fossil Fuel Imports and Exports
The NMDPRA will build on its current approach of restricting import permits to prioritize local refiners and establish a firm deadline of January 1, 2028, for a complete ban on refined petroleum product imports. By this date, domestic refining capacity from Dangote, rehabilitated state-owned refineries, and smaller private players should satisfy national demand. The logic is straightforward: Nigeria has already demonstrated it can supply over 60 percent of its petrol needs domestically, and completing the remaining gap is an infrastructure and investment challenge, not a structural impossibility.
The export question is more sensitive. Nigeria cannot simply halt crude exports overnight without devastating government revenues. Instead, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited will implement a gradual diversion strategy: an increasing percentage of crude production will be reserved for domestic refineries, producing finished products for the Nigerian market and eventually for refined product exports to the West African region. This approach aligns with Adeyemi-Bero’s vision of national oil companies moving down the value chain, following models from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, where national companies have completely transformed their narratives. The NNPC’s target of attracting $60 billion in investment by 2030 must be reoriented toward this integrated value-chain vision. Success will be measured by monthly import volumes trending to zero by 2028 and the steadily increasing percentage of locally produced crude processed in-country.
The Just Transition
The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative emphasizes that the phase-out must be just and equitable. For Nigeria, this means confronting three realities. First, the revenue reality: oil and gas have bankrolled the Nigerian state for decades, requiring the building of new revenue streams from a more electrified, productive economy and from the jobs created by renewable energy deployment. Second, the regional reality: the Niger Delta has borne the environmental costs of oil extraction for generations, necessitating the remediation of degraded lands and investment in alternative livelihoods. Third, the workforce reality: oil and gas workers possess skills that transfer directly to renewable energy construction and maintenance, requiring government partnership with NNPC and industry unions to establish retraining programs.
At COP30 in Belém, Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change co-hosted a panel on partnerships for a just transition, acknowledging the economic dilemma of the transition and the need for bold economic diversification strategies. The BOGA Fund Program and Global Methane Hub-funded initiatives are already supporting these aims by focusing on methane reduction and long-term planning for an equitable transition away from oil and gas dependency.
Nigeria in 2026 is a country where the old certainties are dissolving. The Dangote Refinery has broken the import dependency that defined the downstream sector for three decades. Petrol imports have crashed to nine-year lows. Domestic supply now exceeds imports. These changes were driven by market forces and private investment, not climate policy, but they create an opening for climate leadership. Nigeria has already committed to a 47 percent emissions cut by 2030, pledged to eliminate routine gas flaring, and, in the REA’s 2026 plan, includes a credible roadmap to expand energy access through renewables. What remains is to connect these dots into a coherent strategy that phases out fossil fuels not as an act of sacrifice but as a strategic reinvention. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty provides a framework for that strategy, and this plan offers Nigeria a pathway to lead. The alternative is not stasis but decline, and for the first time in a generation, the moment for choice is right.
This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Nigeria Country Manager, Michael Johnson.
Learn More Resources
- BusinessDay. (2026, March 9). Nigeria’s petrol imports hit a nine-year low as Dangote ramps up production.
- Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance. (2025, November 13). The National Council on Climate Change of Nigeria, BOGA, and the Global Methane Hub co-host a panel event at COP30.
- Radio Nigeria Abuja. (2026, March 1). REA To Execute 500 Electrification Projects In 2026.
- Premium Times. (2026, February 27). REA proposes ₦170bn for 500 electrification projects in 2026.
Country Official: Hon. Balarabe Abbas Lawal, Honourable Minister of Environment, Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja, Nigeria. info@environment.gov.ng