The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative provides the necessary framework for Mexico to align its domestic independence with a just transition to renewable energy.

Mexico’s energy policy stands at a critical crossroads as the nation balances “energy sovereignty” and the urgent demands of the global climate crisis. Over the last two years, the Sheinbaum administration has pivoted toward decoupling national energy systems from external political influences, a move framed as essential for both national security and Paris Climate goals. However, the current lack of an international treaty to phase out fossil fuel production leaves a significant gap in global accountability. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative provides the necessary framework for Mexico to align its domestic independence with a just transition to renewable energy. By adopting this treaty, Mexico can transform its state-led energy model into a blueprint for a post-carbon economy while maintaining the Republic’s sovereignty.

A clear understanding of the challenge requires an honest look at Mexico’s current fossil fuel data. According to Pemex’s 2025 reports, the country is increasingly focusing on domestic fuel processing rather than on crude exports. Crude production reached a historic 46-year low of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, and exports have dropped significantly to 367,000 barrels per day. Despite these lower production levels, internal consumption remains a major challenge, with motor gasoline demand holding at 1.7 million barrels per day. Furthermore, natural gas remains a point of high dependency, as Mexico currently imports most of its supply from the United States at a rate of 6.67 billion cubic feet per day. While coal plays a smaller role, it is limited mainly to power generation in the state of Coahuila. The combined emissions from these three sources represent the overwhelming majority of Mexico’s greenhouse gas profile.

To meet a 2030 phase-out target in line with the Treaty, Mexico must aggressively adapt its existing National Climate Strategy. One vital move is to narrow the legal definition of clean energy. Currently, natural gas and nuclear are included in the mandate that clean sources must generate 54% of all power; removing natural gas from this category would create the radical progress needed to force a shift toward true renewables. The government should also leverage the Sonora Plan to transition from a regional hub into a nationwide renewable backbone, replacing the 1.6 million barrels of oil produced daily with geothermal and solar capacity. Additionally, the infrastructure currently being built must be strictly managed to decrease the 6.67 billion cubic feet of daily gas imports from the United States in favor of domestic renewable generation. These material changes would be enforced through strict carbon caps on large industrial emitters, who would be required to buy permits or invest in verified reforestation projects if they exceed their limits.

The responsibility for implementing and measuring this transition rests with the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources and the Secretariat of Energy. These departments already track the nation’s production and trade data, which provides the baseline for measuring success. This proposal is directed to Secretary Alicia Bárcena Ibarra at the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (alicia.barcena@semarnat.gob.mx) and Secretary Luz Elena González Escobar at the Secretariat of Energy (luzelena.gonzalez@energia.gob.mx). By focusing on these two key figures, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can move from a theoretical framework to a practical reality within the Mexican Republic. The goal is to ensure that the transition is not only fast enough to meet the 2030 deadline but also just enough to protect the workers and communities currently tied to the fossil fuel industry.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Mexico Country Manager, Miguel Martinez.

Learn More Resources

International Trade Administration. “Mexico – Oil and Gas.” https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/mexico-oil-and-gas

Natural Gas Intelligence. “U.S. Natural Gas Exports to Mexico Poised to Surge.” https://naturalgasintel.com/news/us-natural-gas-exports-to-mexico-poised-to-surge-in-2026/

Data México. “Coal Mining: Industry Profile.” https://www.economia.gob.mx/datamexico/en/profile/industry/coal-mining

Climate Action Tracker. “Mexico Country Summary.” https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico/