Reliance on Fossil Fuels Remains High in Japan, Raising Questions About the Effectiveness of Present Strategies in Achieving Meaningful Energy Transition

Japan, a leading industrial powerhouse, is significantly transforming its energy landscape. It is moving away from its long-standing reliance on fossil fuels, which historically constitute approximately 77% of Japan’s energy supply. However, the country strives to enhance sustainability and energy security while reducing carbon emissions.

As of 2022, fossil fuels comprised 72.4% of Japan’s entire energy supply, a significant reduction from 83.6% in 2016. It should be noted that, despite the shutdown of several nuclear reactors following the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011, nuclear power will account for 4.8% of Japan’s energy supply in 2022 and is likely to rise further in the years ahead. According to the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies,  Japan’s commitment to renewable energy increased from 14.7% in 2016 to 22.7% by 2022. Significant investments in wind, solar, and biomass technologies promote growing renewable energy and offer hope for substantially reducing Japan’s carbon emissions, reassuring those concerned about the environment.

Current energy landscape
Japan’s energy mix is evolving, with renewables like wind, solar, and biomass gaining significant traction. Solar energy has seen a remarkable surge, constituting 9.9% of the energy mix in 2022, up from 4.4% in 2016. Wind energy, though a minor contributor at 0.9%, has shown steady growth from 0.5% in 2016. Biomass energy has also substantially risen, increasing from 1.9% to 4.6% within the same period. This substantial progress in renewable energy is a promising sign for Japan’s energy future, instilling optimism in the hearts of all those who care about sustainability and the environment.

On the other hand, fossil fuels remain dominant in Japan’s energy supply, which is crucial in meeting the country’s energy demands. The breakdown of fossil fuels in 2022 shows coal accounting for 27.8%, liquefied natural gas (LNG) at 29.9%, and oil at 27.8%. Despite the country’s efforts to reduce fossil fuel reliance, these sources remain indispensable. This underscores the urgent need for a transition to renewable energy.

Trends from 2015 to 2050
Over the last decade, Japan has made significant strides in boosting its use of renewable energy while decreasing its reliance on fossil fuels. From 2015 to 2022, renewables increased their proportion from about 12% to 22.7%. Projections show that this trend will persist, with renewables potentially accounting for 34-38% of the energy mix by 2030 and up to 50% by 2050. This potential of renewables to significantly contribute to the energy mix by 2050 is a cause for hope, painting a promising picture for Japan’s energy future and instilling a sense of optimism in the hearts of all those who care about sustainability and the environment.

The graphic below depicts the increasing amount of renewables and declining share of fossil fuels in Japan’s energy mix. Renewable energy sources include onshore wind, solar, and biomass, whereas fossil fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas.


Factors influencing the transition
Japan’s energy transition has been influenced by various variables, including governmental changes, technology advancements, infrastructure investment, public-private partnerships (PPPs), economic issues, and natural disasters. Policy reforms have been critical, with the Japanese government launching several schemes to promote renewable energy adoption. The Strategic Energy Plan and the Green Growth Strategy emphasize the importance of lowering reliance on fossil fuels and increasing renewable energy share.

Technological advancements have also had a substantial effect. Innovations in renewable energy equipment, such as more efficient solar panels and wind turbines, have increased renewables’ competitiveness. Investment in infrastructure, such as energy storage systems and smart grids, is necessary to accommodate the increased renewables.

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are another critical factor in speeding up the deployment of renewable energy projects. These collaborations between the public and commercial sectors can leverage resources and knowledge, accelerating the expansion of renewable energy. The urgency of these collaborative efforts is apparent, as they are instrumental in driving the transition to a more sustainable energy future for Japan.

Japan’s aggressive move to renewable energy has drawn both praise and criticism. While the administration has made progress in expanding the amount of renewable energy, some believe that the rate of change is insufficient, given the importance of climate action. Furthermore, reliance on fossil fuels remains high, raising questions about the effectiveness of present strategies in achieving meaningful energy transition. The intermittent nature of renewable technologies like wind and solar presents issues that have yet to be effectively addressed, emphasizing the need for a more robust energy infrastructure and strategic planning to enable this shift. Consequently, numerous recommendations are offered to speed up the changeover.

Recommendations for future growth
Experts recommend several actions to accelerate the transition to renewable energy further. These include strengthening policy support, investing in energy storage, and promoting research and development. Each action plays a crucial role in Japan’s energy transition and is essential for achieving the country’s renewable energy targets.

  1. Strengthen policy support:Japan should improve its policy framework to provide more precise and more ambitious targets for renewable energy, including incentives for renewable energy projects and streamlined regulatory processes, particularly in the gas of newer technologies such as hydrogen (blue, grey, and green) and ammonia as energy sources.
  2. Invest in energy storage:Addressing the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is critical. Japan should invest in innovative energy storage technology to maintain a consistent and reliable renewable energy source.
  3. Promote research and development:Continuous investment in research and development for renewable energy technology is essential. Innovations in energy efficiency, storage, and grid integration will support Japan’s goal of increasing the share of non-conventional energy sources in its energy mix.

Implementing targeted regulations, investing in technology, and encouraging innovation will be critical for Japan to meet its renewable energy targets. As the globe searches for ways to minimize climate change, Japan’s path could become a source of inspiration, learning, and collaboration.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Japan Country Manager Delmaria Richards.


Learn More References
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. (2022). JAPAN’S ENERGY.
https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/brochures/pdf/japan_energy_2021.p
df

Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies. (2023). Japan Energy Report.
https://www.isep.or.jp/en/

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