There is a significant level of climate change skepticism among the South African public.

Polling for the significance of climate change patterns

In 2023, approximately 10% of South Africans denied any significant changes in climate patterns, while 32% believed that the observed weather changes were due to natural variability, rather than human activity. Additionally, 31% of the population believes that climate change is a result of both natural and human influences, yet they show skepticism about the extent of human impact. In addition, about 11% are not certain about the causes of climate change, while 17% believe that climate change is caused by human activities, which aligns with the scientific consensus. This shows a significant level of climate change skepticism among the South African public. A combination of geographic, social, and experiential factors influences climate change skepticism. Individuals from KwaZulu-Natal, those involved in political activism, frequent social media users, those who have experienced extreme weather events, and those with higher awareness of climate change are less likely to be skeptical about climate change.

Polling for climate variability awareness

Approximately 45% of South Africans who are aware of climate change variability are extremely concerned about it. Additionally, 34% are somewhat worried about climate change, while 15% are not concerned about it. Only 6% show uncertainty about climate change. This shows that the majority of South Africans who are aware of climate change are concerned about it.  A strong positive relationship exists between experiencing extreme weather events and concern about climate change, suggesting that direct experience with such events increases concern. Additionally, greater awareness of climate change is correlated with a higher level of concern, underscoring the role of education in promoting public awareness. 

Polling for just transmission awareness

Many South Africans may be unfamiliar with the concept of the energy transition or the transition itself. About 41% of respondents show that they have heard or read ‘a little’ about this shift, while 31% were familiar with it. Nearly 23% had never heard of the transition, and 5% were uncertain about the concept of the energy transition. The demographics indicate that rural residents and those in informal urban areas have lower awareness compared to urban dwellers. Additionally, very few South Africans are familiar with the concept of a ‘just transition’. The specific term was read out to the respondents, and they were then asked to indicate their level of familiarity with it. 

Polling for just the transition concept awareness

About 62% of South Africans supported the concept of a just transition in principle, with 9% expressing disapproval of the actions taken to transition from coal, while 4% strongly disapproved. An educational attainment gradient was observed, with more educated individuals expressing higher levels of approval. Also, people with a higher asset index were more likely to support the just transition than those with a lower socio-economic status. Only 10% of the public population was not worried at all about being negatively affected by the energy transition, whilst 15% felt it would not affect them at all. However 71% acknowledged that there might be negative consequences associated with the just transition. There was a correlation between the reporting of specific economic concerns relating to the just transition and the level of generalized concern about the perceived personal impact of the just transition. 32% of the public were concerned about the possibility of job losses, while 24% expressed worry about the reliability and availability of the electricity supply during the transition. About 19% were specifically concerned about the potential harm to the local environment, and 17% worried about negative health impacts.

Polling for just transition policy acceptance

The Just Transition policy option received the highest level of support, with 79% of respondents supporting this policy. Approximately 77% of respondents supported initiatives aimed at helping women, youth, and vulnerable groups find employment. There was strong support, of 77%, for policies aimed at supporting local businesses and creating job opportunities in areas affected by economic challenges. Most of the respondents agreed with the idea of implementing training and skills programs for workers who lose their jobs, with a substantial 75% in favor. The analysis found that white adults, KwaZulu-Natal residents, and speakers of Siswati and isiNdebele, as well as Setswana and Tshivenda, tended to support these policies more than people from other population groups, ethnicities, and provinces. Additionally, there is an observable negative correlation between age, religiosity, climate change skepticism, and worry that oneself and one’s family will be negatively affected by the Just Energy Transition (JET). This suggests that older people, who are more religious, are more skeptical of climate change and worry about the negative outcomes of JET and are therefore less supportive of policy. 

This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard South Africa Country Manager Rugare Zhou.

List of References

1. https://groundwork.org.za/new-poll-south-africans-overwhelmingly-support-actions-to-address-climate-change-reduce-harmful-methane-pollution/#:~:text=Global%20Methane%20Hub%2C%20groundWork%2C%20C40,support%20registered%20in%20the%20survey.
2. https://hsrc.ac.za/news/climate-change-environment-and-sustainability/a-fair-way-to-go-what-do-south-africans-think-of-climate-change-and-the-transition-to-clean-energy/

Public Perceptions and Attitudes Relating to Climate Change and the Just Transition in South Africa:  Results from a 2023 nationally representative survey. Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) Developmental, Capable & Ethical State (DCES) research division Benjamin Roberts, JarèStruwig, Thobeka Zondi, Steven Gordon, Shanaaz Dunn, Emmanuel Fundisi, Simangele Dlamini & Narnia Bohler-Muller January 2025