The 2025 national greenhouse-gas inventory report (February 11, 2025) reflects continued reliance on fossil fuels, with no signs of an emissions plateau.
Since the start of 2025, the most substantial new data comes from KAPSARC’s (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) February overview and a June modeling update. The 2025 national greenhouse-gas inventory report (February 11, 2025) reflects continued reliance on fossil fuels, with no signs of an emissions plateau—most sectors still show rising CO₂ levels. A new KAPSARC energy policy modeling paper quantifies planned reductions of around 278 MtCO₂e via announced policies—chiefly renewables, carbon capture, and pricing reforms. Meanwhile, international sources continue to project emissions rising toward ~800–830 MtCO₂e by 2030 under current policies, up 15–19% compared to 2021.
Although emissions remain on an upward trajectory in 2025, the Saudi Green Initiative reaffirmed its headline goals of reducing emissions by 278 MtCO₂e by 2030, generating 50% of electricity from renewable sources, and scaling up carbon capture and storage (CCS). In a move toward international cooperation, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding with Italy in January 2025 focused on methane reduction, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, cross-border electricity interconnection, and CCS, signaling more substantial global alignment on clean energy transitions. Domestically, efforts to electrify transportation gained momentum with an April partnership between Aramco and BYD, aiming to boost electric vehicle sales from 1% to 30%, although the current infrastructure, only 101 public chargers, remains a constraint. Fuel-economy standards, proposed in late 2024, are also under development to reduce emissions in the transport sector. Meanwhile, major CCS projects are scaling up, including Aramco’s Jubail facility, with a planned capacity of 9 MtCO₂e per year, and a pilot direct-air-capture initiative with Siemens. Despite these efforts, updated data confirms that overall emissions continue to rise. While Saudi Arabia’s policies are becoming more ambitious and diversified, analysts estimate that, even if fully implemented, they may not be sufficient to counteract the projected rise to 800–830 MtCO₂e by 2030. As such, further acceleration and scaling of mitigation efforts will be necessary to align with global climate targets.
There has not been a significant decrease in the use of fossil fuels as Saudi Arabia has not implemented sufficient policies to substantially bring down its greenhouse gas emissions and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. The country remains the world’s third-highest crude oil and condensate producer, the world’s top crude oil exporter, and OPEC’s top crude oil producer. In June 2025, Saudi Arabia raised its oil exports to 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May’s level of 6.33 million bpd, the highest level in more than a year. The exports are projected to further increase in July to almost 7.5 million bpd. However, as part of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s use of renewable energy has been steadily increasing, with over 21 GW in planned renewable energy projects as of mid-2024, the majority of which are for solar power. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar projects had reached 3.8 GW, with projections indicating that it would reach 6.7 GW by 2025.
Report Card Country Rating: C
Saudi Arabia is standing still because the country’s records on phasing out the production, use, and export of fossil fuel remain mixed, with the recent increase in crude oil exports. Similarly, the country made little progress in increasing renewable energy production in the last decade. The Kingdom aims to reduce carbon emissions by 278 MtCO2e per year by 2030 and increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix to 50%. However, in 2023, renewables generated only around 1% of electricity, and Saudi Arabia had approximately 2.7 GW of installed renewable capacity. In contrast, it has 97 GW of oil and gas plants in operation, along with a pipeline of more than 8 GW of fossil plants under construction as of August 2024.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Saudi Arabia Country Managers, Abeer Abdulkareem and Amgad Ellaboudy.