According to Climate TRACE, Indonesia has shown back-to-back emissions reductions in early 2025.

As one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters, Indonesia’s trajectory has major implications for global climate targets. In early 2025, Climate TRACE, a global emissions tracking initiative using satellite and AI data, began releasing monthly national emissions updates. These high-resolution datasets provide real-time insights into Indonesia’s progress (or lack thereof) toward decarbonization.

New Emissions Data: Consistent but Modest Decreases

According to Climate TRACE, Indonesia has shown back-to-back emissions reductions in early 2025:

• January 2025: GHG emissions declined by ≈392,300 tonnes CO₂e, or −0.32% Year over Year (YoY) compared to January 2024.
• February 2025: A larger drop of ≈872,000 tonnes CO₂e, or −0.72% YoY, was recorded, making Indonesia one of the few major economies to post a meaningful decline.
• March–April 2025: While Indonesia-specific data for March and April is not broken down, global trends suggest mixed progress, with April showing a slight global uptick (+0.71% YoY).

These early-month figures point to a potential turning point. Though reductions are small in scale (<1%), they are consistent and contrast with rising emissions in many other major economies. However, the lack of sector-specific detail limits our ability to determine whether the change stems from energy transitions, forestry improvements, or seasonal variation.

Emissions patterns suggest Indonesia’s efforts to address deforestation and transition away from fossil fuels may be gaining limited traction. Notable external developments during this period include:

• Early coal retirement plans under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and
• Expansion of EV infrastructure and revised emissions pricing schemes (as reported by local ministries and policy think tanks).

However, these were still in rollout stages in early 2025 and are unlikely to have fully influenced the emissions reductions from January to April.

We can infer from national trends that coal use remained substantial. However, the consistent monthly declines suggest improvements in forestry emissions, land-use fire management, or the early deployment of renewable energy.

Indonesia earns a “B – Moving Forward” based on verifiable early-year emissions data from Climate TRACE. The consistent monthly drops in 2025 are encouraging signs of stabilization, especially as global emissions continue to rise in several comparable countries.

Why this rating?

• Indonesia is one of the few major economies to post back-to-back monthly emissions reductions.
• However, reductions remain modest and lack sectoral clarity.
• Clear evidence of significant fossil fuel cuts or comprehensive policy impacts remains absent.

This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Indonesia Country Manager, Netra Naik.