India has correctly identified reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in ecosystem services as key to its survival. However, India must accelerate the timeline for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out coal dependence.

According to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and predictive models (CMIP6), over the past 20 years, India’s average temperatures have increased, monsoon seasons have intensified, and more extreme weather events, such as prolonged heatwaves and flash floods, have occurred.  

Compared with the 1900s, India’s average temperatures have increased by about 0.6°C to 0.9°C, causing intense heatwaves that start in early Spring and last much longer across central, eastern, and northern India. Monsoon seasons have also changed over the years, resulting in severe droughts, intense cloudbursts, and localized urban flooding. Droughts and heavy rainfall have also negatively affected agriculture by causing dry soil and water scarcity in Central and Western India. 

India’s future weather pattern estimates suggest an accelerated warming of winter and night-time temperatures and longer summer seasons. Predictive models project a further mean temperature increase of approximately 1.2°C to 3.0°C by mid-century. This is largely due to increased greenhouse gas emissions in the Earth’s atmosphere. Additionally, monsoon seasons will shorten, while heavier and more destructive rainstorms are predicted to increase by 20%, especially in India’s eastern and Northeastern regions. Cyclonic storms are expected to increase in frequency and intensity along India’s eastern and western coasts due to rising surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Together, these predictions will increase heat index values, posing a clear danger to human health and other life on this planet.

The increase in average temperatures could also increase energy consumption in India, causing frequent blackouts across the country and forcing a reliance on coal generation. The ecological consequences may include more frequent forest fires across India, and heavy monsoon rainfall may trigger river flooding and coastal erosion, resulting in billions of rupees in infrastructure damage. Additionally, shifting monsoon rainfall patterns, heat stress, and rising invasive species could negatively affect staple crop production such as wheat and rice in India. The cumulative effects may reduce local farmers’ incomes and lead to food shortages, eventually affecting global food supply chains. 

India has addressed future weather and climate changes through a comprehensive multi-sector framework called the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), alongside updated 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targeting non-fossil energy and carbon intensity reductions. Key initiatives include scaling solar and renewable capacity, improving water and agricultural resilience, and expanding forest cover. 

India has correctly identified reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in ecosystem services as keys to its survival. However, the timeline for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out coal dependence must accelerate. This would require massive shifts and capital investment in infrastructure –all of which may seem impossible for a developing country of 1.4 billion people but must be possible for its survival. 

Learn More Resources: 

1. Dhara C, Deshpande A, Roxy MK, Dalpadado P, Shrestha MS (2025) A post-AR6 update on observed and projected climate change in India. PLOS Climate 4(11): e0000724. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000724
2. Down to Earth. 2025. India’s climate apocalypse? New scientific update paints stark picture of the country’s accelerating crisis.
3. Juhi Chatterjee. 2026. Temperature Trends in India. https://www.dataforindia.com/temperature-trends-in-india/
4. Nayak, S. (2023). Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments. Climate, 11(5), 94. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050094
5. Rahul Kumar, G.S. Gopikrishnan, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, Rapid changes in warm and cold extremes in recent decades and their future projections for India, Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 387, 2025, 125832, ISSN 0301-4797, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125832.
6. T.V. Lakshmi Kumar, Buri Vinodhkumar, K. Koteswara Rao, J.S. Chowdary, Krishna Kishore Osuri, Srinivas Desamsetti, Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India’s future climate, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 226, 2023, 104137, ISSN 0921-8181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104137.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard India Country Manager, Sudha Balajapalli.