The country’s future climate risk will depend not only on how much global warming occurs, but on whether Indonesia can prevent increasingly hot, dry conditions from triggering fires while managing more intense rainfall, flooding, and rising demand for cooling.
Over the past 20 years, Indonesia has experienced rising temperatures alongside increasingly disruptive rainfall extremes, droughts and severe wildfire seasons. Indonesia’s climate is naturally influenced by the monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and surrounding oceans. Climate change is now interacting with these natural climate patterns, increasing the risks associated with both extreme wet and dry conditions.
Recent and future weather patterns
Research based on observations from 88 weather stations across Indonesia found widespread changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, including significant warming trends in many parts of the country. Annual averages of daily maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly, at rates of 0.18°C and 0.30°C per decade (1983–2012), respectively. Daily precipitation intensity (SDII) increased significantly across the country by 0.21 mm per day per decade between 1983 and 2012. This provides evidence that Indonesia’s climate has already changed rather than these risks being solely future projections.
Future projections indicate that these changes will continue. Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has developed climate projections using 19 CMIP6 climate models under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The projections cover changes in rainfall, temperature, heavy rainfall, dry spells, and consecutive wet days for both 2021–2050 and 2071–2100.
A 2024 study using 24 CMIP6 models found that Indonesia’s future climate is likely to experience more frequent and intense wet and dry extremes. During the wet season, extreme rainfall indices are projected to increase across much of Indonesia, while consecutive dry days are expected to increase across southern Indonesia and during the country’s dry season.
Heat, droughts and floods
Rising temperatures increase heat stress, evaporation and water demand, while changing rainfall patterns increase the risks of both drought and flooding. Flooding is one of Indonesia’s most significant climate-related hazards. Between 1990 and 2021, Indonesia experienced more than 300 natural disasters, including around 200 flooding events that affected more than 11 million people. Approximately 70% of these disasters were climate-related.
Extreme rainfall is also projected to become more important. CMIP6 research on Indonesia’s future climate finds changes in extreme rainfall indicators, though the magnitude and direction vary by region, season, and emissions scenario. This matters in densely populated cities and agricultural areas, where intense rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, damage infrastructure and cause landslides.
Drought presents the opposite risk. Strong El Niño events can substantially reduce rainfall over Indonesia, particularly during the dry season. When drought occurs over already degraded or drained peatlands, the risk of uncontrolled fires rises sharply.
Fires, emissions and agriculture
Indonesia’s fires demonstrate how weather extremes can interact with human land-use practices to create a powerful climate feedback. During the 2015 El Niño, widespread drought combined with land clearing and drained peatlands to produce one of Indonesia’s most severe fire seasons. Research estimated that the fires released approximately 748 ± 209 million tonnes of CO₂ between July and November 2015. Another study estimated that around 4.6 million hectares burned and approximately 0.89 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent were released.
The significance is not only the immediate emissions. Burning peat releases carbon that has accumulated over centuries or millennia. Research estimates that the 2015 fires released between 0.89 and 1.5 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent, while exposing more than 40 million people across the region to severe smoke pollution.
Climate extremes also threaten agriculture. Drought can reduce water availability and crop yields, while flooding can destroy crops, erode soils and disrupt transport. These risks matter because agriculture remains a key source of livelihoods and depends heavily on seasonal rainfall.
Climate change is simultaneously increasing pressure on Indonesia’s energy system. As temperatures rise, demand for air conditioning is expected to increase. The International Energy Agency projects that the share of Indonesian households with air conditioning could rise from less than 15% today to around 50% by 2035, driving up electricity demand. At the same time, Indonesia’s electricity system remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly coal. The World Bank estimates that energy accounts for about 40% of Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions and that coal’s share of the energy mix has more than doubled over the past two decades.
What is Indonesia doing?
Indonesia has strengthened its climate commitments through its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution, targeting a 31.89% reduction in emissions by 2030, rising to 43.2% with international support. The country also aims to make the forestry and land-use sector a net carbon sink by 2030 through its FOLU Net Sink program, while pursuing net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner.
Indonesia has also strengthened forest and peatland protection, developed climate-resilience programs for agriculture, water, health and coastal areas, and expanded disaster early-warning and climate information systems.
These measures are producing some progress. The World Bank reports that deforestation fell substantially, with annual forest loss in 2020 and 2021 at its lowest level since 1990. However, the country’s continued dependence on coal, rising electricity demand and vulnerability to drought-driven fires remain major challenges.
Overall, Indonesia is making meaningful progress on land-use emissions and climate resilience, but implementation needs to move faster in the energy sector. The country’s future climate risk will depend not only on how much global warming occurs, but on whether Indonesia can prevent increasingly hot and dry conditions from triggering fires, while simultaneously managing more intense rainfall, flooding and rising demand for cooling.
This post was submitted by ClimateScorecard Country Manager, Netra Naik.