Australia’s national emissions are nevertheless declining. In the year to December 2025, emissions were about 458.9 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, 24.5% below 2005 levels.
Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced a clear shift toward a warmer and more climate-stressed environment, although the pattern is not simply “hotter and drier.” Natural climate drivers such as El Niño, La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode still produce large year-to-year variations. Against this variability, however, the long-term warming signal is increasingly evident. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that Australia has warmed by about 1.59°C since 1910, and 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred in the twenty-first century. Very high monthly maximum temperatures occurred about six times as often during 2009–2023 as during 1960–1989, while very cold days and nights have generally become less frequent.
Rainfall change is strongly regional. Cool-season rainfall has declined by about 16% in south-western Australia since 1970 and about 9% in south-eastern Australia since 1994, contributing to reduced streamflow, soil moisture and water availability. By contrast, northern Australian wet-season rainfall has increased. Heavy, short-duration rainfall is also becoming more intense, increasing flash-flood risk even as average rainfall declines. Fire weather has worsened across much of southern Australia, with longer fire seasons and more dangerous fire-weather days.
Future Weather Patterns
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology projections indicate that Australia will continue to warm. Hot days will become more frequent and hotter, southern mainland winter and spring rainfall is projected to decline, and southern Australia is expected to spend more time in drought. At the same time, extreme rainfall will intensify: daily extreme rainfall is projected to increase by about 8% for each degree of global warming. In comparison, hourly extremes may increase by about 15% per degree. Southern and eastern Australia are also expected to experience harsher fire weather. These projections mean that Australia faces the apparently contradictory risks of longer dry periods and more intense rainfall when storms occur.
Environmental and Economic Impacts
The consequences are already visible in heatwaves, droughts, bushfires and floods. Extreme heat increases health risks, evaporation and electricity demand for cooling. Drought reduces water availability, stresses ecosystems and agriculture, and creates conditions favorable to severe fire. The 2019–20 Black Summer illustrates this compound risk: in New South Wales alone, more than 5.5 million hectares burned, more than 2,000 homes were destroyed, and 25 people died. The 2022 floods in south-east Queensland and New South Wales generated approximately 246,000 insurance claims and more than AUD 6 billion in insured losses.
Agriculture is particularly exposed. ABARES modeling estimates that the climate experienced during 2001–2020 reduced simulated average broadacre farm profits by about 22.6% compared with a 1950–2000 climate, holding farms and commodity prices constant. Flooding also disrupts production: during the December quarter of 2022, agricultural gross value added fell 2.8%, driven by waterlogged crops, delayed grain harvests, and reduced quality.
Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy
Weather patterns and emissions interact in both directions. Climate change increases the probability and severity of some extreme conditions, while those conditions can influence energy use and carbon flows. Heatwaves raise electricity demand for cooling. Drought and fire can reduce vegetation carbon storage, while major bushfires release very large quantities of carbon in the short term. However, fire emissions require careful interpretation because post-fire forest regrowth can reabsorb carbon and Australia applies internationally recognized natural-disturbance accounting rules.
Australia’s national emissions are nevertheless declining. In the year to December 2025, emissions were about 458.9 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, 24.5% below 2005 levels. Electricity-sector emissions fell 3.8% over the year as renewable generation displaced coal and gas. This is important: extreme heat may continue to increase electricity demand, but a cleaner grid, battery storage, rooftop solar and demand management can progressively weaken the link between higher energy consumption and higher emissions.
Australia’s Response and Its Effectiveness
Australia is responding through both mitigation and adaptation. National targets require emissions to fall 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, 62–70% by 2035, and reach net zero by 2050. Renewable electricity and storage are expanding, while the National Climate Risk Assessment and National Adaptation Plan provide a framework for identifying and managing physical climate risks. The Disaster Ready Fund provides up to AUD 200 million annually for resilience and risk-reduction projects, and agricultural research and improved farm management are helping producers adapt to drier and more variable conditions.
These measures represent substantial progress, particularly in decarbonizing electricity and shifting from disaster recovery to risk reduction. Australian farmers have also demonstrated significant adaptive capacity. However, the response is still insufficient. The Climate Change Authority has concluded that emissions reductions must approximately double by 2030 and triple by 2035 to meet national targets. Adaptation programs are improving, but rising heat, flood, fire and drought risks continue to generate multi-billion-dollar losses.
Conclusion
Australia’s experience shows that climate change is not producing one uniform weather trend. Instead, a warmer climate interacts with natural variability to produce compound risks: stronger heat, southern drying, more intense short-duration rainfall, and worsening fire weather. These changes affect emissions, energy demand, agriculture, ecosystems and disaster losses simultaneously. Australia has strengthened its policy framework and is making measurable progress. Still, emissions reduction and practical adaptation will need to accelerate if the country is to keep pace with projected weather patterns over the coming decades.
Australia’s future climate will be determined much more by the global climate system and surrounding oceans than by changes in Australia’s domestic emissions alone. Therefore, national climate policy needs to distinguish between Australia’s responsibility to reduce its contribution to global warming and its need to adapt to climate changes that will continue to arrive through the Southern, Pacific and Indian Ocean systems.
Key sources: Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO; DCCEEW National Greenhouse Gas Inventory; AEMO; ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Climate Change Authority; National Emergency Management Agency.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Australia Country Manager Mine Shu.