Projections for the remainder of the 21st century are alarming. National and IPCC studies predict a temperature rise of up to 6 °C in the Amazon and 5.5 °C in the Cerrado by 2100.

Summary and Review of Weather Patterns (2004–2024)

Over the past two decades, Brazil has shifted from a global example of emission reductions to a heightened climate emergency. Since the early 2000s, the country has seen average temperatures rise by about 0.7 °C, with regional variations showing consistent warming, particularly in the Southeast. The period was marked by extremes: Amazon deforestation rates declined sharply until the mid-2010s, but recent years have seen record fires and severe droughts. In 2024, the Amazon recorded its worst first semester for fires in 20 years, with a 61% increase compared to 2023.

Estimated Future Patterns and Forecasting Data

Projections for the remainder of the 21st century are alarming. National and IPCC studies predict a temperature rise of up to 6 °C in the Amazon and 5.5 °C in the Cerrado by 2100. It is estimated that if Amazon deforestation exceeds a critical tipping point of 40%, a large part of the forest will transform into a savanna, drastically reducing rainfall patterns throughout the country. For 2026 and 2027, meteorologists warn of a strong El Niño, which is expected to divide Brazil: excessive rainfall in the Center-South and extreme droughts in the North and Northeast.

Effects on Environmental Factors: Heat, Cold, Droughts, and Floods

Global warming has made meteorological events more erratic and violent. In the South and Southeast, floods and landslides have become more frequent and deadly, as shown by the 2011 tragedy in Rio’s Mountain Region and the historic 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul, which generated losses estimated at R$ 100 billion. Conversely, the Northeast and North face prolonged droughts that threaten water security and livestock survival; the 2012/2013 drought in the semi-arid region was the worst in 50 years.

Impact on Key Climate Change Variables

• Emission Levels: In 2024, Brazil’s gross emissions totaled 2,145.23 MtCO2e, with the Land Use Change (deforestation) sector accounting for 42.2% and Agriculture for 29.2%.
• Fires and Floods: In addition to fire records in the Amazon, the country averaged more than four natural disasters per day in 2024.
• Agricultural Losses: Agriculture has transitioned from a driver of emissions to a victim of their effects. It is estimated that warming could generate losses of up to R$ 14 billion by 2070, with severe productivity declines in soy, corn, and coffee. In 2025, the grain harvest is already expected to fall by 4.2% due to the climate.
• Energy Consumption and Production: With 80% of electricity dependent on hydroelectric plants, the reduction in basin flow (estimated at up to 30% in some scenarios) threatens system stability, forcing the use of polluting thermal plants and driving up costs. Extreme heat also increases energy demand for cooling.

Adopted Measures and Effectiveness Analysis

Brazil has a robust legal framework, including the National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC) of 2009 and the recent Climate Plan 2024–2035, which focuses on adaptation and mitigation across 16 sectors. Other initiatives include the ABC Plan (Low Carbon Agriculture) and PPCDAm.

Effectiveness Analysis: Despite these guidelines, implementation is described as a “patchwork quilt” lacking efficient inter-ministerial coordination. Effectiveness has been compromised by:

1. Governance Paralysis: Between 2019 and 2022, structures such as the Climate Fund and the Amazon Fund were paralyzed.
2. Lack of Monitoring: There are no appropriate methodologies to measure the real impact of PNMC instruments.
3. Protection Gap: Only 7.7% of agricultural land is covered by rural insurance, leaving the sector vulnerable to extreme shocks.

While the country met reduction targets in the past due to falling deforestation until 2012, recent discontinuity and the expansion of fossil sources threaten the fulfillment of Paris Agreement commitments.

Research Sources:

1. SEEG – Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimating System. GEE Emissions (2024) Brazil. Available at: https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/
2. Observatório do Clima. Analyses and Reports on Brazilian Climate Policy. Available at: https://oc.eco.br/
3. Federal Senate. Evaluation of the National Policy on Climate Change (Report of the Environment Commission), 2019.
4. FGV Agro/OCSR. Impacts of El Niño on Brazilian Agricultural Production, 2026.
5. Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. Climate Plan 2024–2035. Gov.br Portal.

This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira.