Abeer Abdulkareem

Saudi Arabia’s emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO2e in 2030, a 13–17% increase from 2019 levels, giving it one of the world’s highest per capita emission levels,

Saudi Arabia’s current total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are 838,876,551 MtCO2e. Saudi emissions increased by 2.5%, or 20,684,825 MtCO2e over 2023, when GHG emissions were 818,191,726 MtCO2e. 

This accounts for 1.6% of global GHG emissions. The sectors with the largest amounts of GHG emissions are the power industry, with 279,164,339 MtCO2e, or 33%, and industrial processes and combustion, together contributing another 30% of the total GHG emissions at 153,681,691 and 103,179,798 MtCO2e, respectively. The third major source of greenhouse gas emissions is transportation and fuel exploitation, accounting for another 30%, at 145,108,037 and 106,205,345 MtCO2e, respectively. The waste, agriculture, and buildings sectors have the lowest GHG emissions.

Saudi Arabia’s emissions have not fallen since its original Paris pledge. Its first NDC (2015) targeted avoiding 130 MtCO2e/year by 2030; the 2021 update more than doubled this to 278 million tons of CO2eq annually by 2030, with 2019 as the base year. A December 2025 revision raised this further to a 2040 target, reducing emissions by 335 MtCO₂e below baseline projections. Yet these are reductions against an undefined, self-set “business-as-usual” baseline rather than absolute cuts, so real emissions keep climbing: Saudi Arabia’s emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO2e in 2030, a 13–17% increase from 2019 levels, giving it one of the world’s highest per capita emission levels, well above the USA, Canada, or Australia. 

Saudi Arabia is therefore not on track for a 50% cut from 2020 levels by 2030; Climate Action Tracker rates its target “Critically insufficient.” On carbon neutrality, the Kingdom’s actual pledge is net-zero by 2060, not 2050, and progress toward even that is weak: renewables accounted for only 2% of its power mix in 2024 despite a 50%-by-2030 renewable electricity goal. The greatest impediment is structural dependence on hydrocarbons: oil and gas have historically accounted for more than half of Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP, and its NDC explicitly conditions its ambition on the continued robustness of hydrocarbon exports. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s climate strategy avoids tackling the real driver of emissions: fossil fuel production and use.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Saudi Arabia Country Managers Abeer Abdulkareem and Amgad Ellaboudy.

LEARN MORE RESOURCES

1. Climate Action Tracker, “Saudi Arabia” (2026), climateactiontracker.org 
2. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Updated NDC (2021), UNFCCC 
3. Climate Transparency, “Saudi Arabia” Country Report (2021) 
4. Climate Change News, “Saudi Arabia issues vague last-minute climate plan” (2026)
5. Worldometers, “Saudi Arabia” (2026), www.worldometers.info