Illegal deforestation in Brazilian biomes serves as a negative “wildcard,” capable of nullifying efficiency gains in other areas and distancing the country from its global climate responsibilities.
In 2024, Brazil recorded a total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions volume of 2,145,225,627 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). Data from the SEEG (System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals) platform show that the country remains at an emissions level very close to that recorded nearly a decade ago, when the Paris Agreement was signed.
The Weight of the Land and the Pasture
The mapping of Brazilian emissions points to a recurring culprit: the Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. Driven primarily by deforestation, this sector alone accounts for 905,607,083 tCO2e, equivalent to approximately 42.2% of the national total. Agriculture follows it, responsible for 626,045,717 tCO2e (29.2%), and the Energy sector, with 423,666,229 tCO2e (19.8%). At the base of the emission pyramid, with smaller impacts, are the Waste (95.6 million tCO2e) and Industrial Processes (94.2 million tCO2e) sectors.
The Paris Labyrinth and the Race Against Time
A comparative analysis shows that Brazil is moving slowly on its international commitments. In 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was signed, the country emitted 2,142,482,700 tCO2e, a figure technically identical to the current one. Although the country has managed to retreat from the peaks of 2021 and 2022 (when emissions exceeded 2.5 and 2.7 billion tons, respectively), the 2030 scenario still requires drastic measures.
To meet the goal of reducing emissions by 50% from 2020 levels by 2030 (the year the country emitted 2,506,783,841 tCO2e), Brazil would need to reduce its emissions to approximately 1.25 billion tCO2e. With only six years remaining, the gap of nearly 900 million tons to be cut indicates that the current rate of reduction is insufficient to ensure the carbon neutrality promised for 2050.
The Main Obstacle
Experts and data converge on one point: Brazil’s greatest hurdle is the volatility in the Land Use Change sector. While emissions from other sectors tend to follow economic growth or technological shifts, illegal deforestation in Brazilian biomes serves as a negative “wildcard,” capable of nullifying efficiency gains in other sectors and distancing the country from its global climate responsibilities.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager Carlos Alexandre de Oliviera.
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Learn More Resources
- SEEG. System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals (Platform 13.0). Available at: https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/. Accessed on: Aug 11, 2026.
- SEEG. Historical Series of Total Emissions in Brazil (1990-2024). Reports by Sector.
- SEEG BRAZIL. Gross and Net Emission Highlights. Available at: http://seeg.eco.br/.
- UN CLIMATE. Brazil’s Commitments under the Paris Agreement.