The NDC Partnership is a network of over 120 countries, facilitated by UNFCCC, that is dedicated to helping each other strengthen their Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Pledges. The Partnership has just released Version 3.0 of the NDC Navigator, an interactive tool that supports the development of updated country NDCs to be submitted in 2025. Below are Climate Scorecard Country Managers’ advice to their countries of what needs to be done to strengthen their NDCs based on the framework of the NDC Partnership Navigator.
The honorable Shintaro Ito
Minister of Environment Japan
Central Government Bldg. No. 5,
1-2-2 Kasumigaseki,
Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo 100-8975,
Japan
Dear Minister Ito,
As Japan prepares to update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2025, we strongly recommend utilizing the NDC Partnership’s Navigator 3.0 tool to increase our country’s climate obligations. This recently published interactive platform provides helpful information for countries looking to improve their NDCs following the Paris Agreement targets. The United Nations Climate Change NDC Partnership website (https://ndcnavigator.org/routes/) offers more details on the instrument.
Based on Navigator’s framework, we advocate prioritizing Route #1 -“Aligned to the Paris Agreement Temperature Goa” – to better connect Japan’s NDC with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature target. To pursue this road effectively, Japan must address many crucial questions:
- Has Japan conducted an updated analysis to determine the emissions reductions needed for 1.5°C alignment?
While Japan has established a goal of decreasing emissions by 46% beneath 2013 levels by 2030, independent evaluations indicate that this falls short of the reductions required for 1.5°C alignment. We advocate doing detailed research to determine the precise emissions trajectory necessary for Japan to contribute its fair contribution to the global 1.5°C target. This analysis should use cutting-edge methodology, such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approaches, to ensure a comprehensive emissions assessment across all sectors.
- Has Japan explored opportunities to increase ambition in critical sectors?
Japan’s current NDC focuses heavily on the energy sector. We encourage you to consider other mitigation opportunities in various sectors, such as transportation, infrastructure, and buildings, such as ships, trucks, freight trailers, etcetera. Furthermore, expediting the transition to electric vehicles, improving energy efficiency in industry, and enforcing stricter building rules might result in significant further emissions reductions. Consider using Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling to improve the geographical distribution of low-carbon infrastructure and identify high-impact regions for action.
- Has Japan considered nature-based solutions in its mitigation strategy?
Japan’s forested lands (68% of land mass, or 24.9 million ha) have significant carbon sequestration potential. We advocate including specific targets for better forest management in the amended NDC. Furthermore, investigating blue carbon activities along Japan’s extensive coastline may provide further mitigation potential. GIS research could help discover ideal places for these nature-based solutions. These efforts may result in carbon offsets and economic, social, environmental, and biodiversity advantages.
- Has Japan assessed the costs and benefits of enhanced climate action?
While moving to a low-carbon economy necessitates enormous investment, it also provides substantial economic benefits. We recommend a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of more ambitious climate action, including possible job creation in green businesses, lower healthcare expenses due to improved air quality, and increased energy security through reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This analysis should concentrate on high-emitting industries and use scenario-modeling techniques to assess potential pathways and their related impacts.
- Has Japan engaged with stakeholders to identify barriers to increased ambition?
Broad stakeholder engagement is crucial for developing an achievable yet ambitious NDC. We recommend initiating a series of consultations with industry leaders, local governments, civil society organizations, and climate experts to identify potential barriers to increased ambition and strategies to overcome them. This process should be comprehensive, ensuring a thorough understanding of challenges and opportunities across all sectors. We believe organizations such as the Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IG ES), The Nature Conservation Society of Japan (NACS-J), and the Ecosystem Conservation Society-Japan (ECSJ) can provide valuable support.
While Route #1 offers the most developed path for strengthening Japan’s NDC, we encourage you to consider elements from Routes #2, “Aligned to Paris Agreement Global Goal on Adaptation,” and #3, “Delivers a Just and Equitable Transition.” Strengthening adaptation planning and ensuring a just and equitable transition are crucial components of a comprehensive climate strategy. By integrating these aspects, Japan can develop an NDC that addresses mitigation, enhances resilience, and promotes social equity.
Furthermore, by tackling these issues via the lens of NDC Navigator 3.0 and applying rigorous analytical methodologies, Japan can create a more robust and ambitious NDC closely aligned with the Paris Agreement’s objectives. This would underscore Japan’s commitment to global climate action, position our country as a leader in transitioning to a sustainable, low-carbon future, and help Japan meet its 2050 carbon-neutrality target. We are prepared to support your efforts in this crucial endeavor and look forward to seeing Japan’s increased climate commitments in the upcoming NDC submission.
I look forward to hearing back from you soon.
Sincerely,
Delmaria Richards (PhD)
Climate Policy Analyst
Climate Scorecard
The letter above emphasizes the importance of utilizing the NDC Navigator 3.0 to systematically address crucial areas for improvement in Japan’s climate commitments. Using Route #1, Japan can ensure that its NDC closely aligns with the Paris Agreement’s fundamental aim of preventing global temperature rise to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels.
Climate Scorecard has also initiated the Climate Action Newsletter, featuring reports where experts and concerned citizens discuss strategies for enhancing NDCs. A summary of the recommendations for Japan has been posted to encourage broader engagement and dialogue on strengthening the country’s climate commitments.
As countries worldwide prepare to submit updated NDCs by 2025, tools like the NDC Navigator 3.0 will be critical in assisting governments in identifying opportunities for higher ambition. Japan’s response to these proposals may set an important precedent for other wealthy countries to raise the bar for climate action.
The NDC Partnership continues to facilitate collaboration and knowledge-sharing among its member countries, supporting the global effort to accelerate climate action and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. As the 2025 NDC submission deadline approaches, all eyes will be on significant economies like Japan to see how they leverage tools like the NDC Navigator to enhance their climate commitments.