Turkey News Brief and Action Alert

Recommendations to Strengthen Turkey’s NDCs

October 31, 2024October 31, 2024

The NDC Partnership is a network of over 120 countries, facilitated by UNFCCC, that is dedicated to helping each other strengthen their Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Pledges. The Partnership has just released Version 3.0 of the NDC Navigator, an interactive tool that supports the development of updated country NDCs to be submitted in 2025. Below are Climate Scorecard Country Managers’ advice to their countries of what needs to be done to strengthen their NDCs based on the framework of the NDC Partnership Navigator. 

Mr. Nuri Ozbagdatli
Climate Change and Environment Portfolio Manager,
UNDP. Oran Mahhallesi, Mustafa Fehmi Gerceker Sokak, No:12, 06450. Çankaya Ankara
Turkey

Dear Mr. Ozbağdatlı,

By way of introduction, I am the country manager of Turkey’s Climate Scorecard. We have been closely following the actions and efforts of Governments and NGOs to reduce emission levels and strengthen their NDCs.

I am contacting you to urge you to follow the new Guidelines for strengthening country pledges to the Paris Agreement established by the United Nations through the NDC Partnership. The NDC Partnership is a network of over 120 countries, facilitated by UNFCCC, dedicated to helping each other strengthen their Paris Agreement (NDC) Pledges.

The Partnership has just released version 3.0 of the NDC Navigator, an interactive tool that supports the development of updated country NDCs that will be submitted in 2025. The Navigator helps countries raise ambition and accelerate the implementation of the next round of  NDCs (NDCs 3.0). For more, see www.ndcnavigator.org

NDC Navigator Guidelines provide advice that helps countries navigate one or more of the three NDC strengthening routes below:

Route #1 How can your country’s NDC become more aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal?

Route #2 How can your country’s NDC become more aligned with the Paris Agreement’s global goal of adaptation?

Route #3 How can your country’s NDC help support a just and equitable transition

As stated in its current country NDC overview, “Turkey has confirmed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 41% through 2030 compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario given in Turkey’s first NDC considering 2012 as the base year. Turkey’s first NDC is economy-wide and includes comprehensive mitigation and adaptation actions and consideration of means of implementation. Turkey intends to peak its emissions at the latest in 2038.”

Considering the significant atmospheric and temperature changes taking place in recent years and their severe consequences, such as widespread forest fires, we strongly believe in and support route one as suggested in the NDC navigation document—strengthening Turkey’s NDC to make it more in alignment with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.

The Paris Agreement temperature goal requires global greenhouse gas emissions (all gases) to peak before 2025 and to limit global average warming to 1.5°C by 2030, 69 to 80 percent by 2040, and 84 to 99 percent by 2050.

To help Turkey achieve this temperature goal, we urge you to review the following questions and take advantage of the opportunities.

Did the mitigation target of the last NDC include all sectors, categories, and gases? If not, are you looking to expand coverage?

Did the last NDC target consider any longer-term targets (e.g., LT-LEDS target, net-zero targets)? If an LT-LEDS did not exist when the previous NDC was created, does one now exist, and if so, does it have any longer-term targets to which the NDC 3.0 can be aligned?

Was the mitigation ambition of the last NDC assessed for alignment with a 1.5oC compatible emissions trajectory?

Were expected emissions reductions from NDC actions quantified in the last NDC (i.e., through modeling of future emissions projections)?

Do targets exist at the subnational or sector level that should be considered in the NDC target?

Are emissions growing in any particular sectors?

Is adaptation a priority in addition to mitigation?

Was leveraging the impacts and co-benefits of nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation/adaptation considered in the last NDC?

The NDC 3.0 Navigator presents eight examples of Opportunities countries can pursue to enhance NDC ambition through alignment with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.

“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting temperature increases will mitigate the frequency and magnitude of climate-related hazards, such as wildfires, droughts, storms, and extreme rainfall. This will also bring wider benefits, such as loss and damage avoidance, and potentially a reduced need to adapt to the consequences of climate change. With holistic planning approaches, mitigation action can also help avoid further negative consequences, such as negative economic impacts (e.g., stranded assets) and maladaptation. Decarbonization also has synergies with sustainable development and can lead to numerous socioeconomic benefits, such as green and sustainable jobs (in terms of both carbon footprint and income security), improved air quality and health, energy security (e.g., through energy efficiency and uptake of renewables), and economic growth, diversification, and circularity.”

Even though all three routes are equally important, we believe controlling temperature/GHG needs immediate action as the results will be more visible and directly affect the current problematic situation.

Please let me know if these suggestions are useful and if you and your team would like any support in responding to them and strengthening Turkey’s Paris Agreement NDC.

I look forward to hearing back from you soon.

Best regards,

Dr. Semih Ergür

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