Turkey has come a long way since the 1990s, from mostly dependent on fossil fuels to producing more renewable energy. Turkey’s energy production methods are similar to those of comparable countries in the world, with a dependence of over 85 percent on fossil fuels.  In 2019, Turkey’s primary energy supply was around 30 percent oil, 30 percent coal, and 25 percent natural gas. Unfortunately, these fossil fuels contributed significantly to Turkey’s air pollution and above-average greenhouse gas emissions. Turkey mines its lignite, which has a low calorific value but imports three-quarters of its energy, including half the coal and almost all the oil and gas it requires, and its energy policy prioritizes reducing imports.

As of June end 2024, the total installed capacity of power generation is 107GW, and the breakdown of the power plants in Turkey is as follows: 29% Hydro, 23 % Natural gas, 21% coal, 11 % Wind Power Plant, 14% solar, 2 % geothermal. Electricity generation reached 326 TWh in 2023, and as per the Turkish National Energy Plan, electricity generation is expected to be 380 TWh in 2025, 455 TWh in 2030, and 511 TWh in 2035.

In 2023, the highest volume of electricity was generated from coal in Turkey, amounting to nearly 76 TWh. Natural gas and hydropower followed closely, generating roughly 69 and 64 TWh of electricity, respectively. However, the plan for the coming years is to increase the installed capacity of the renewable energy sources to the following levels: Wind Power 309 GW, 25 GW onshore and 5 GW offshore, 53 GW solar, 35 GW hydro, and 5 GW geothermal and biomass. In addition to the above-mentioned renewable sources, a nuclear Power Plant (PWR), which is under construction, will be operative starting in the 4thQ of 2024 with one unit of 1200 MW and eventually will reach 4800 MW in 4 units.

 

The plan for the coming years to diversify the energy production sources is rather aggressive, and the following chart shows the plan in Mtoe (Million tons of oil equivalent)

The share of intermittent renewable energy sources (mainly hydro sources that lack production consistency) in electricity generation, which was 11.7% in 2020, will increase gradually to 34.3% by 2035. Similarly, the share of all renewable energy sources in electricity generation, which was 42.4% in 2020, will reach 54.8% by 2035.  The share of hydroelectric power plants in total installed capacity, which currently has the highest share in the total installed capacity, will be 17.3% in 2035, as they have approached their maximum installed capacity and generation potential.

Electricity generation in coal-fired power plants, which had a share of 34.5% in generation in 2020, will continue to decrease up to 2035. Carbon prices will play a key role in generating electricity from coal plants for the electricity and heat generation sector.

Another important aspect of decreasing the adverse effect of energy production is improving the energy efficiency of the systems. The plan for the coming ten years is to reduce the energy intensity by 40% for Turkey, which is quite parallel to some European countries.

(Energy Intensity is measured by the quantity of energy required per unit output or activity so that using less energy to produce a product reduces the intensity)

 

The dependence of Turkey on fossil fuels will eventually diminish with the increase of renewable sources at affordable equipment prices and the start of the production of the Nuclear power plant, which will have other considerations as well.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkey Country Manager Dr Semih Ergur.