Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing more frequent and more intense climate extremes over the past decades. Over Southern Africa, temperatures are expected to rise faster at 2° C, and areas of the southwestern region, especially in South Africa and parts of Namibia and Botswana, are expected to experience the greatest temperature increases. South Africa has been experiencing drier and hotter weather in the last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. The South African Weather Services (SAWS) indicated that heatwaves will increase in future years.

South Africa has also been suffering from raging wildfires, especially in the Western Cape. About 6,000 wildfires were recorded between December 2023 and January 2024 on about 100,000 hectares of land. The dry and windy conditions of the El Nino weather event have intensified these wildfires.

Fig:1 February-March-April 2024 (FMA; left), March-April-May 2024 (MAM; right), April-May-June 2024 (AMJ; bottom) seasonal maximum temperature prediction.

South Africa’s dry and high temperatures have adversely affected the agricultural sector, causing decreased crops and livestock loss. Extreme heat and intense heat waves have caused arable land to be less suitable for growing crops and pose a significant threat to livestock survival. Heatwaves and increased hot days have led to animal distress and the death of livestock, wildlife, and birds. There is an increase in the encroachment of woody trees and shrubs on grazing areas due to wildfires and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Fire is one of the significant local factor drivers of bush encroachment, and this is due to its ability to maintain stability by destroying woody plant seedlings and facilitating seed germination by breaking dormancy in some species. This suggests that both the presence and absence of fire may trigger bush encroachment depending on the location and the type of inhabiting tree species and grasses, as well as the management of the farm. Also, a rise in atmospheric CO₂ levels may favor the growth of C3 woody plants. This has led to habitat destruction for wildlife and birds and reduced grazing capacity for livestock. It noted that for the past 60 years, encroachment has increased by 10% on subsistence grazing lands and 20% on commercial grazing lands.

The extreme heat and heatwaves in South Africa have posed health threats in many communities. Heat typically affects the body’s ability to regulate temperature, primarily through cooling. This will cause an individual to experience heat cramps, exhaustion, stroke, hyperthermia, headaches, and other problems. In 2016, South Africa recorded about 11 deaths in the North-West Province and 117 in the Northern Cape due to heat stress. In addition, high temperatures affect the prevalence of other diseases, such as malaria. The most affected populations are the elderly, infants, children, people with pre-existing conditions, outdoor workers, and people with low incomes.

The South African government launched the National Climate Change Response Plan White Paper (NCCRP) in response to climate change and global warming. The NCCRP identified heat stress as a critical health and environmental risk. Excessive heat was also highlighted in The South African National Climate Change and Health Adaptation Plan, which raised the concern that people of low economic status are most vulnerable to extreme heat conditions. The plan recommended that assessments be carried out on the risk and vulnerability of individuals, followed by planning relevant interventions, which may include simple prevention measures such as shade, indoor ventilation, and cooling aids, amongst others. Also, community awareness programs assist in preventing heat-related health impacts.

To develop an assessment to analyze a community’s vulnerability to heat, an interdisciplinary approach is used, including climatological information, natural resources, built environment, social factors, and knowledge shared between different stakeholders. A national climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted in 2013 in South Africa to consider health risks that can be increased due to climate change, such as non-communicable and infectious diseases, vector-borne diseases, and heat-stressed diseases. In South Africa, many municipalities have also conducted climate change vulnerability assessments for their municipalities, pushing for the development of climate change adaptation frameworks and strategies.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard South Africa Country Manager Rugare Zhou.

Learn More References

1. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-02-22-too-darn-hot-heatwave-hits-sa-and-its-not-over-yet/
2. https://www.samrc.ac.za/press-releases/heatwaves-and-mortality-africa
3. https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=17089
4. Wright CY, Mathee A, Goldstone C, Naidoo N, Kapwata T, Wernecke B, Kunene Z, Millar DA. Developing a Healthy Environment Assessment Tool (HEAT) to Address Heat-Health Vulnerability in South African Towns in a Warming World. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 6;20(4):2852. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20042852. PMID: 36833550; PMCID: PMC9957206.
5. https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2024-000008-zaf
6. https://reliefweb.int/report/south-africa/south-africa-flood-04-2024-floods-2024-04-18
7. https://www.jbarisk.com/products-services/event-response/south-africa-kwazulu-natal-floods/
8. Johnston, P. et al. Climate Change Impacts in South Africa: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People. (2024)