However, the mitigation measures implemented thus far are insufficient.
Spain ranks first among European countries where heat-related mortality has increased the most during this century. This is highlighted in the second report of ‘The Lancet Countdown’ indicators in Europe, led by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center-National Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) in collaboration with 40 other European institutions. The increase in heat-related deaths in Spain has been 39.9 more per 100,000 inhabitants from 2003-12 to 2013-22. The European average was 17. Heat-related deaths are twice as likely in women. They are also higher among those with lower incomes (elderly women and migrants), mainly due to food insecurity. This is particularly worrying in Spain. New data from the Arope indicator (risk of poverty or social exclusion), the primary measure of poverty used by the European Commission, now places Spain with the most households in trouble.
According to the MACE model, over 15,300 people had premature death in Spain due to high temperatures in 2022. A year later, in 2023, 11,165 people died from heat. Within Spain, the provinces of Cáceres and Ciudad Real and the Portuguese district of Braganza experience the highest heat-related mortality rates in Europe. Low-income households are more likely to experience food insecurity, heat-attributable deaths are higher among women, and exposure to wildfire smoke is more significant in highly disadvantaged areas.
“Climate change is inherently a problem of social and environmental justice,” emphasizes Kim van Daalen, lead author of the report and postdoctoral researcher in ‘The Lancet Countdown’ study.
According to the February 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, climate change is already causing a temperature increase of an additional 1.5°C in the Mediterranean, above the global average of 1.1°C. If current inertia continues, greenhouse gases are likely to cause double the warming: approximately 3.2°C by 2100.
“We are soon going to surpass the safety threshold we set in Paris,” warns Minister of Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera at the presentation of the IPCC Atlas. Climate neutrality requires us to commit and make profound changes as local actors at the individual and citizen levels.
Regarding the impact of temperature increase on Spain’s coastal areas, an article in Environmental Research Letters warns that the global sea level could rise three meters by 2100, leading to significant flooding in Barcelona, Malaga, A Coruña, or Santander, loss of Doñana National Park, most of the Rías Baixas, and the disappearance of the Ebro Delta. For a country like Spain, which relies on “sun and beach” tourism during the summer, this would have devastating economic consequences, exacerbating food insecurity for the most vulnerable.
According to the Ministry of the Environment, 75 percent of Spanish soil is in the process of desertification, and it is projected that 20 percent of currently safe areas will be at risk within 50 years. The autonomous communities of Andalusia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, and virtually the entire Levante already have a high proportion of soil susceptible to degradation. This would negatively impact agricultural activities and visibly affect ecosystems.
It has also been observed for some time how invasive species are destroying our country’s biodiversity due to new climatic conditions. One example is the zebra mussel from the Black and Caspian Seas, which has colonized the Ebro and the Júcar, Segura, and Guadalquivir basins. This bivalve alters the water’s physical-chemical characteristics, affecting the endemic flora and fauna.
Due to rising temperatures, the Organization of Ibero-American States (EOI) has warned of new threats. The tiger mosquito, from Southeast Asia, has begun to colonize much of Catalonia and the Valencian Community. Tropical diseases such as malaria, Zika virus, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, West Nile virus, and others are re-emerging in Spain in areas where they were previously eradicated or never occurred, as high temperatures allow the vectors (mainly mosquitoes) that transmit them to persist.
Although agriculture is already adapting, with changes in crop calendars, shifting cultivation to higher areas, or using more salt-tolerant or drought-resistant species, the 2022 IPCC report documents that in high warming scenarios (>2ºC), some adaptation measures may become ineffective and unable to maintain current food production.
This map from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is very revealing:
It shows that 37% of the European Union is alert for unfavorable environmental conditions. With this data, the Iberian Peninsula is almost entirely marked by adverse conditions or “with stressed vegetation and soil moisture deficit, ” as the EDO itself points out.” Spain is at a much higher risk in this regard than neighboring countries, even those in the Mediterranean area. No other country on the continent is in such a negative situation as Spain, except for the northern regions of Morocco and Algeria.
The most extreme and recent example of the emergency caused by drought in Spain is the region of Catalonia, which has been experiencing a significant rainfall deficit for four years. Catalonia is currently in an emergency due to the worst drought ever recorded. The Catalan government restricted water use at the beginning of 2024 for 80% of the population, including Barcelona, to ensure domestic supply in the coming months. “This is the worst drought on record,” says the Catalan government.
The Sau reservoir is at historic lows. ZUMAPRESS.COM / CORDON PRESS
To face the Spanish´s “summer hot reality,” the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities created the Health and Climate Change Observatory (OSCC). This interministerial space, approved in July 2023 by the Council of Ministers, was born out of the need to address the impact of climate change on health cross-cuttingly. The Observatory has created a series of thematic working groups to make necessary contributions to prevent health effects resulting from climate change. It will carry out various technical works to improve critical prevention devices, such as the Heat Plan (a plan to prevent health impacts from high temperatures). Still, it will also promote a culture of self-protection, especially for the most vulnerable communities and groups, to increase risk awareness and empower them to avoid or reduce risks.
However, the map the Spanish Ministry of Health has published to provide more precise heat alerts is the clearest example of the necessity of measures to be taken to save lives from extreme heat events expected this year, 2024. This is one of the measures Spain, at the forefront of the climate crisis in Europe, is taking to protect citizens and tourists, highlighting the extreme measures already being taken to prevent deaths from continuing to rise. The “Copernicus” map reveals which areas of the country will be the hottest in the coming months, stating there is a 70% chance this summer will again be one of the hottest on record in Spain.
Additionally, the National Plan for Preventive Actions against the Effects of Excessive Temperature on Health was launched on May 16. It will be in effect until September 30, although it could be extended until October if the heat persists as in previous years. The plan’s goal is to prevent and reduce the negative effects of heat on health, especially in vulnerable groups: the elderly, pregnant women, children, immigrants, and chronically ill patients. The annual plan was implemented for 20 years after the deadly summer of 2003 caught Europe unprepared.
The effectiveness of these measures remains to be demonstrated, as they are more focused on adapting to climate change, which already has devastating consequences. The mitigation measures implemented so far are insufficient to reduce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions that are causing Spain to dry out and desertify rapidly, with very concerning social, economic, and environmental consequences.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Spain Country Manager Juanjo Santos.