Saudi Arabia Will See an 88% Increase in Agricultural Drought by 2050

Saudi Arabia is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Gulf region to climate change. Temperatures in Saudi Arabia are warming at a rate 50% higher than in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. If the trend of rising temperatures persists or accelerates, human survival in this region will be impossible without continuous access to air conditioning.

Extreme weather and scorching temperatures have health-related and economic risks as they lead to life-threatening conditions or exacerbate underlying illnesses like diabetes, asthma, or cardiovascular diseases. More than 1,300 Muslim pilgrims died during this year’s Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia as the country experienced an extreme heat wave. The temperature in Mecca climbed as high as 125 degrees Fahrenheit, causing heat stress and heat strokes, where the human body simply can’t stop overheating.

Extreme weather conditions will disproportionately impact vulnerable and marginalized populations in Saudi Arabia, mainly migrant workers. An estimated 10 million migrant workers reside in Saudi Arabia and are particularly vulnerable to climate change and increasing temperatures. Migrant workers in Saudi Arabia working in the construction sector face physically demanding and dangerous working conditions, exposing them to elevated levels of heat stress and various other climate-change-related risks. These risks are compounded by long working hours and inadequate safety and health training.

According to a G20 Climate Change Risk Atlas, prolonged periods of heatwaves, dangerous sea level rise, coastal erosion, and fiercer weather will have a devastating impact on Saudi’s economy and its vulnerable and marginalized population. Heat waves will last more than 4,242% longer, and consequently, Saudi’s economy will stand to lose around 12.2% of GDP by 2050. Rising sea levels also present a critical threat to the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia, including major cities such as Jeddah and Dammam. The impacts of sea-level rise on infrastructure, economic activity, and the social fabric of these regions could be catastrophic, with nearly 200,000 people expected to be exposed to persistent coastal flooding by 2025. Additionally, climate-change effects will impact agricultural production and increase food insecurity, as Saudi Arabia will see an 88% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050.

Saudi Arabia has implemented various policies and programs to adapt to these extreme summer weather conditions exacerbated by climate change. These initiatives target both the prevention and treatment of heat-related conditions. Key measures include the National Climate Adaptation Plan, which aims to enhance resilience through infrastructure upgrades, public awareness campaigns, and research. Additionally, large-scale cooling projects like district cooling systems and promoting reflective building materials help mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Water management is another crucial area, with investments in desalination plants and water conservation programs addressing water scarcity intensified by extreme heat. Advanced technologies have been deployed to improve water use efficiency in agriculture and urban settings. Public health initiatives focus on preventing heat-related illnesses through awareness campaigns, providing cooling centers, and ensuring access to medical services. Occupational health regulations mandate rest breaks and shade for outdoor workers during peak heat periods.

These programs are primarily implemented by the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture and the Ministry of Health. Although the exact costs are not always publicly detailed, water management and cooling infrastructure investments run into billions of dollars. Evidence of effectiveness includes reduced instances of heat-related illnesses and improved water security. However, comprehensive independent assessments are limited, indicating that ongoing monitoring and evaluation are crucial for continued adaptation and to address the escalating impacts of climate change in Saudi Arabia.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Saudi Arabia Country Managers Abeer Abdulkareem & Amgad Ellaboudy.

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