Between 2010 and 2022, climate change has caused the ten hottest years on record. With the influence of El Nino in 2023, which saw temperature records broken on 179 days in one year, it became the hottest year on record, and it is expected that temperature records will likely continue through the summer of 2024. As predicted, an intense heatwave continues to grip Turkey. Temperatures in the southern and western regions have exceeded 40°C since the beginning of summer, far above the seasonal norms. Furthermore, the high humidity has exacerbated the discomfort. It has been causing severe health problems not only for seniors but for most people, particularly those living in the south and southeast parts of the country.

In Turkey, the impact is quantified using the data recorded in 2023 by comparing the potential number of extreme heat days in a hypothetical scenario without human-induced climate change, 18.8 days, against the actual 47.6 days experienced. This difference highlights the role of climate change in shaping current weather patterns.

The increased heat poses immediate health risks and long-term socioeconomic challenges. Countries around the Mediterranean, including Turkey, face heightened vulnerabilities due to these prolonged heat conditions, affecting everything from agriculture to energy consumption patterns. In major cities in Turkey, warnings have been issued occasionally to vulnerable groups such as the elderly, sick, pregnant women, and children against prolonged exposure to the sun and high humidity levels, which also poses a further challenge to the risky groups.

Wildfires, a significant drop in agricultural production, and increased energy consumption have also been concerns throughout the hot weather.

The increase in weather temperatures is a problem that Turkey, as well as almost all the countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Northern Africa, must tackle.

The below maps exhibit the average temperatures recorded in the region from June 11-13, 2024. Turkey and Northern Africa have been hit severely by the heat wave compared to the other regions. Furthermore, the shift from the long-term averages is even more striking for some of the countries, including Turkey, as shown by the dark colour in the second map.

The Government in Turkey has not taken much of a precaution against the expected weather extremity. The persistent inflation and increasing public dissatisfaction with the Government and its policies have been the main points of focus of the Government. The only major precautions are improved alarm systems and wildfire-fighting vehicles (including increased helicopters and planes). The recent increase in electricity prices will surely not help the low-income groups as using AC units will no longer be affordable.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkey Country Manager Dr Semih Ergur.