Indonesia’s emissions in 2014 were 894 MtCO2e/a (excluding forestry) according to Climate Action Tracker. By 2030, Indonesia must reduce emissions to 551 MtCO2e/a to avoid 1.5 Celsius warming. From planned policies, Indonesia should emit 1094 in 2019 increasing up to 1630 MtCO2e/a by 2030. Indonesia must reduce emissions by about 400-600 MtCO2e/a in each year to avoid the 1.5 Celsius increase. To decrease yearly emissions by up to 1/3 of their projected levels, Indonesia needs to green its energy, forestry, and agricultural sectors. 

1. RUPTL Plan Greening and PLN Licensing Reform

The poor management of PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara), the state energy company, and the energy sector will not be compatible with a world below a 1.5 Celsius increase. The RUPTL Plan (Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik, the goal energy mix for 2025) stands at 30% coal – 22% oil – 23% renewables -25% natural gas. The targets for natural gas and renewables need to be raised and coal needs to decrease to achieve emissions reductions of 400-600 MtCO2e/a a year. The existing targets will be difficult to achieve while PLN’s plant licensing process remains shadowy and out of line with national energy targets. Future RUPTL must increase renewable and gas in the energy mix and PLN must increase transparency in its licensing process.

The energy mix targets are creeping in the right direction but corruption, poor leadership and poor administration are rampant. The mishandling of the energy sector includes the cancellation of renewable energy projects and the shady investment in low grade, lignite coal. PLN has dumped 24 private renewable energy projects that had a combined capacity of 324.12 MW. PLN has failed to foster renewable energy; of the 70 projects that the company signed power purchasing agreements for, these projects have only produced 35 MW of power. 29 projects with a capacity of 780.75 MW are underway, but given PLN’s threat of closing projects that have not met financial close, these strides in renewables may falter. While renewable energy projects are halted, 18 mine-mouth power plants that consume lignite coal – low grade and low calorific coal – are under construction. Lignite producers lobby PLN to approve licenses for mine mouth plants; power plants which can consume lignite coal and that are built next to mines. 

2. Implement a New Phase of The Permanent Forest-Peatland Moratorium

The now permanent moratorium should include pre-2011 licensed areas of intact, primary forest and peatland. The moratorium should also protect 433,000 square kilometers of secondary forests, half of which is designated as production forest, meaning it could be cleared by pulp and paper or logging concessions and a further tenth is licensed to palm oil concession holders. In a 2017 WRI analysis, Indonesia could fall under its 2030 cap of 2 gigatons of CO2 emissions if it protects pre-2011 licensed forests and peatlands and includes secondary forests in its moratorium on clearing. Protecting all primary forest, peatland, and secondary forest will ensure Indonesia reaches its 2030 pledge to the Paris Agreement and potentially exceed the BAU baseline to prevent the 1.5 C increase. 

The forestry and land use sector is performing better than energy. The moratorium on primary forest clearing and peatland conversion has been made permanent. Since 2011, the moratorium has been renewed three times. This is an important step to prevent massive emissions from land fires which are the result of forest clearing and peatland drainage for primarily palm oil production. The permanent moratorium will protect at minimum 660,000 square kilometers of carbon rich forests. In 2018, 3,400 square kilometers of forest were cleared, the lowest rate in over a decade. GFW at WRI attributes this fall to the peat protection policies put in place after the historically destructive land fires in the summer of 2015. The new phase of the moratorium should be marked with the expansion of its protection and improved enforcement. The 2011 moratorium prevents new licenses that would clear or disturb in primary forest and peatland. Pre-2011 licensed concessions that have not yet cleared forest may still do so. 

Activity Rating: **** Moving Forward 

The greening of the RUPTL Plan, PLN licensing reform, and implementing a new Phase of the permanent forest-peatland conversion moratorium will enable Indonesia to become 1.5 degrees Celsius compliant and can form the basis for strengthening Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. However, implementing these recommendations will not happen unless the government takes steps to weed-out administrative corruption and puts in place a mechanism for effectively monitoring the implementation of both initiatives.

Please send the following message to the policymaker(s) below. 

To the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignasius Jonan and Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya Bakar,

You are both responsible for implementing Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. We recommend that your Ministry update the greenhouse gas emissions pledge of Indonesia to the Paris Agreement before November 2030. Your updated pledge should be aimed at reaching a target of 551 MTCO2. We recommend that you implement the following policies in order to reach this target: RUPTL Plan Greening, PLN Licensing Reform, and the protecting of licensed primary forest, licensed peatland, and currently unprotected secondary forests.

Send Action Alert Message to:

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ignasius Jonan: klik@esdm.go.id 

Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya Bakar: pusdatin@menlhk.go.id