China: (1) Strengthen Country’s Paris Agreement pledge (2) Greater use by the business sector of non-fossil fuel electricity; (3) Greater reductions in the use of coal-fired power by the business sector
China’s INDC targets include:
A commitment to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, at the latest;
Lower the carbon intensity of GDP by 60% – 65% below 2005 levels by 2030;
Increase the share of non-fossil energy carriers of the total primary energy supply to around 20% by 2030,
Increase its forest stock by 4.5 billion cubic meters, compared to 2005 levels.
China’s INDC emission reduction pledge to the Paris Agreement is not ambitious enough to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, let alone the 1.5 degrees limit in the Paris Agreement.
Nonetheless, the commitment and effort is internationally considered ambitious and bold. In fact, China’s current policies are estimated to overachieve the target levels implied by its NDC. Its most effective policies surround the restriction of coal consumption, which has recently been predicted to have already peaked. Two future developments in coal consumption that will further strengthen the policies include:
Continued coal abatement China’s recent decreases in coal consumption would continue at a similar rate, allowing carbon dioxide emissions to reach the NDC peaking target around ten years early.
Stalled abatement scenario would mean reaching a stability in total coal consumption after the recent decrease and remain constant from the 2020 – 2030 period.
I would suggest stronger a connection of already existing and planned non-fossil electricity along with greater coal restriction. This would involve greater connection with businesses, particularly state-owned enterprises in heavy, resource-intensive industries. Globally, we need to consider the shift of industrial services moving away from China to other developing countries such as Indonesia, as this would allow China to reduce its own emissions but not total global emissions.