Possibility of Ratification by 2018: High
Spain has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement, but it fully intends to do so.
The Spanish government is currently preparing the necessary documents. It hopes that the documents will be in order at some point during the month of July of this year, at which point the documents will be presented to Parliament for ratification. If the ratification of the Paris Agreement is considered to be an urgent matter, the process could take as little as six months. However, if it is considered a non-urgent matter, the process may take up to a year.
To the frustration of not only the Spanish government but its citizens as well, in the recent June elections no party gained enough votes for a majority rule. Spain has literally been functioning without an elected government since December 2015 and is now back in the same boat. The baton has been passed back to the previous Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy as he and the rest of the country are experiencing an unwelcome instance of déjà vu. One of the only differences between Spain’s situation in December 2015 and its current one is that Rajoy’s party, the Popular Party, earned a larger number of votes in the June election than in December.
The Popular Party has been one half of the two-party system that has dominated Spanish governance since its inception in the 1970s. While a couple of newer parties had gained popularity leading up to the December election, June’s results showed a shift back to the “tried and true” parties. As it stands, Congress is scheduled to meet at the end of July, which is when documents pertaining to the Paris Agreement are set to be introduced. While it seems unlikely that the members of Congress will be unable to form a coalition necessary for an investiture vote due to the unpopularity it would cause them, it is entirely possible. The future of Spain’s government—while more optimistic than in December—is still quite uncertain. Given that the ratification of the Paris Agreement must happen in Parliament, its future also remains to be seen. Luckily, Mariano Rajoy, who will most likely remain as Prime Minister, has voiced his support for the Paris Agreement.
However many experts say that the Spanish government is counting on ratifying the Agreement within the next six months to a year. The language used conveys a sense of certainty that it is to be passed. There are no signs indicating that there is opposition from any political party. In fact, the Director of the Office of Climate Change has reassured the community that the issue of climate change is a high priority for all parties.
Submitted by Climate Scorecard Country Manager Andrea Delmar