Indonesia News Brief and Action Alert

Indonesia: Current Emission Levels

September 17, 2026September 17, 2026

Overall national emissions continue to increase because energy sector emissions have grown faster than reductions in the land sector.

Indonesia is the sixth-largest greenhouse gas emitter globally in terms of total emissions, reflecting its large population, extensive land-use change, peatland degradation, and fossil fuel use. However, on a per capita basis, Indonesians emit substantially less greenhouse gases than people in many developed countries, with average emissions of around 7.2 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per person (2019), compared with 17.6 tonnes in the United States and 13.3 tonnes in Russia. 

As Southeast Asia’s largest economy and home to the world’s third-largest tropical rainforest, Indonesia plays a critical role in global climate mitigation. While the country has strengthened its climate commitments in recent years, emissions continue to rise, particularly from the energy sector, highlighting the challenge of balancing economic growth with decarbonization.

According to the European Commission’s EDGAR 2025 Report, Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly over recent decades, rising from 338.04 MtCO₂e in 1970 to 1,323.78 MtCO₂e (1.32 GtCO₂e) in 2024. Indonesia now accounts for approximately 2.49% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the world’s top-ten emitters. The country’s emissions have grown steadily due to factors such as economic development, energy demand, land-use change, and fossil fuel use. This assessment uses the EDGAR 2025 global emissions database for the latest internationally comparable estimates, along with Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1) for national climate targets and sectoral information.

Indonesia’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions is the energy sector, driven primarily by coal-fired electricity generation, transportation, manufacturing industries, and expanding industrial activity. Although emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) have declined compared with the severe peat fire years of the previous decade due to improved forest protection and peatland restoration, land-use change remains one of the country’s largest sources of emissions. Agriculture also contributes significantly to methane emissions from rice cultivation and livestock, while the waste sector continues to grow amid rapid urbanization. The Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector contributes the smallest share of Indonesia’s national greenhouse gas emissions.

Indonesia has strengthened its climate commitments since signing the Paris Agreement. Its original Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged to reduce emissions by 29% below business-as-usual levels by 2030, or 41% with international support. The updated commitments increased these targets to 31.89% (unconditional) and 43.20% (conditional). In October 2025, Indonesia submitted its Second NDC, shifting from percentage reductions to an absolute emissions target, with emissions expected to peak around 2030 at 1.35–1.49 GtCO₂e, then gradually decline. Compared with 2015–2016, Indonesia has made notable progress in reducing deforestation and improving peatland management. Still, overall national emissions continue to increase because energy sector emissions have grown faster than reductions in the land sector.

Indonesia is not on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 2020 levels by 2030. Independent assessments indicate that current policies will allow emissions to continue increasing throughout this decade, despite improvements in renewable energy deployment, electric vehicle adoption and energy efficiency. The country’s heavy reliance on coal-fired power generation means that existing policies are insufficient to achieve reductions consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The Climate Action Tracker therefore rates Indonesia’s current climate targets and policies as “Critically Insufficient,” indicating that substantially stronger mitigation measures are required.

Similarly, Indonesia is not yet on track to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The government’s official long-term strategy continues to target net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. However, recent policy statements have expressed an ambition to accelerate this timeline if technological development, climate finance, and international cooperation allow. Achieving net zero by 2050 would require significantly faster retirement of coal-fired power plants, rapid expansion of renewable energy, stronger industrial decarbonisation, and sustained protection of forests and peatlands.

The greatest obstacle to deeper emissions reductions remains Indonesia’s continued dependence on coal and fossil fuel-based economic growth. Coal still dominates electricity generation, while industrial expansion, mining and growing energy demand continue to drive emissions upward. Although Indonesia possesses enormous solar, geothermal and hydropower potential, investment barriers, fossil fuel subsidies, transmission constraints and regulatory uncertainty continue to slow the clean energy transition. Accelerating renewable energy deployment, strengthening carbon pricing, expanding energy efficiency, and protecting forests and peatlands will be essential if Indonesia is to meet its long-term climate ambitions.

This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Indonesia Country Manager Netra Naik.

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