India’s energy strategy prioritizes an equitable, development-oriented transition rather than a rapid fossil-fuel phase-out.

India’s energy strategy prioritizes an equitable, development-oriented transition rather than a rapid fossil-fuel phase-out. The government maintains fossil fuels (primarily coal) as essential for energy security, industrial growth, and reliable baseload power while aggressively expanding renewables. This approach aligns with India’s Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), and net-zero by 2070 goal, emphasizing “common but differentiated responsibilities” under the Paris Agreement.

India does not support or endorse the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, viewing binding phase-out mandates as premature and potentially detrimental to energy security and economic development. Official positions reject externally imposed timelines for the elimination of fossil fuels, focusing instead on efficiency, renewable energy scaling, and international finance for the transition.

The framework integrates existing policies such as the National Green Hydrogen Mission, the Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme, FAME-III for EVs, and just transition considerations for fossil-dependent regions. Projections from NITI Aayog (2026 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero) indicate that fossil fuels will decline gradually: from ~87% of primary energy in 2025 to 54% by 2070 under current policies, or 14% in ambitious net-zero scenarios with CCUS.

Current Fossil Fuel Landscape (Updated Baseline for FY 2024-25 and Recent Trends)

Fossil fuels supply ~70-75% of electricity and dominate the primary energy mix. Recent data reflect 2025 trends: coal power generation dipped by ~3-3.4% in 2025 (the first decline in years), but overall demand remains high, with production stable. Renewables/non-fossil capacity exceeds 50% of installed power (achieved early).

Key Insights: 

Coal production targets aim for 1.31 billion tonnes by FY27 and 1.5 billion by 2030. Coal consumption projected to peak mid-century (e.g., 1.83-2.62 billion tonnes by 2050 per NITI scenarios) before declining. 

Renewables at ~266-270 GW installed (as of early 2026), with total power capacity ~520-524 GW.

Key Government Priorities and Policies

Priorities center on Viksit Bharat (Developed India by 2047), energy access, job creation (~50 million green jobs target), and reducing import dependence via domestic renewables, biofuels, and efficiency.

• Renewable Expansion: Accelerate to 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 (on track; early achievement of 50% non-fossil share).
• Efficiency and Substitution: PAT for industry; green hydrogen (5 MMT by 2030); EVs (30% of new sales by 2030); and CCUS for hard-to-abate sectors.
• Coal Role: No phase-out timeline; focus on cleaner technologies, no new inefficient plants, and peak in power emissions potentially by 2030 if renewables accelerate.
• Just Transition: Support for fossil regions via retraining, land repurposing, and economic diversification (addressed in NITI reports).
• Carbon Market and Finance: Domestic compliance market (mid-2026), international support via Loss and Damage Fund.

Core Goals and Targets (Official and Projected)

Targets emphasize reductions in intensity and additions to capacity, not an absolute fossil phase-out.

Monitoring via MNRE, CEA, PPAC, and UNFCCC Biennial Transparency Reports. Challenges include grid stability, financing, and balancing growth with decarbonization.

This reflects India’s enacted policies: a pragmatic, self-determined transition prioritizing development while contributing to global climate goals through renewables leadership and equity advocacy.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard India Country Manager, Ankita Padelkar.