While 87% of academic studies on Nigeria’s climate policies highlight growing awareness, only about 28% of the general public can accurately explain what drives climate change.
Nigeria is at a pivotal moment in its development, where the demands of economic growth, energy security, and climate responsibility intersect. As global momentum builds toward decarbonization, Africa’s most populous nation faces the daunting challenge of moving away from fossil fuels without marginalizing millions who rely on them. The stakes are high, and public opinion plays a crucial role in shaping the country’s climate policies.
But what do Nigerians really think about climate change, renewable energy, and sustainable development? Recent polling data reveal a nation that is deeply aware of environmental threats yet divided on the best path forward. The story that emerges is one of cautious optimism, economic anxieties, and a generational shift in attitudes.
A Growing Awareness, but Knowledge Gaps Remain
Over the past decade, climate change has moved from a distant global concern to a tangible reality for many Nigerians. Farmers in the north grapple with prolonged droughts, coastal communities face rising floods, and cities like Lagos and Port Harcourt choke under worsening air pollution. Unsurprisingly, surveys indicate that climate awareness is increasing, particularly among younger, urban, and more educated Nigerians.
Yet, there is a disconnect between recognizing climate impacts and understanding their causes. While 87% of academic studies on Nigeria’s climate policies highlight growing awareness, only about 28% of the general public can accurately explain what drives climate change. Rural communities, while deeply affected by climate disasters, often lack access to clear information. Many farmers attribute erratic rainfall patterns to divine will rather than global warming, illustrating the urgent need for better climate education.
Who Supports Climate Action, and Who Hesitates?
The Urban-Rural Divide
In Lagos, Abuja, and other major cities, support for climate policies is strong, with approximately 68% of urban dwellers backing the expansion of renewable energy. The push for solar power resonates in cities where electricity shortages are a daily frustration. Young professionals and students are especially vocal, with 72% favoring solar investments over further reliance on fossil fuels.
But in rural areas, where livelihoods depend on agriculture and informal economies, the conversation shifts. While 89% of rural farmers report worsening droughts and floods, only about 31% link these changes to broader climate trends. For them, survival takes precedence over long-term environmental policies. A farmer in Sokoto put it bluntly: “If the government tells me to stop using my generator but doesn’t give me light, how will I feed my family?”
The Generational Split
Nigeria’s youth, making up over 70% of the population, are emerging as the strongest advocates for climate action. Polls show that 65% of Nigerians aged 18-35 support phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, compared to 42% of those aged 50 and above. This generational divide suggests that as younger Nigerians gain political influence, climate policies may gain momentum.
The Political Fault Lines
Political affiliation also shapes climate attitudes. Supporters of opposition parties are more critical (58%) of Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” initiative, viewing it as a delay in the renewable energy transition. Meanwhile, those aligned with the ruling party tend to favor gradual shifts, emphasizing job protection in the oil and gas sector. Civil society groups, however, are pushing harder—89% demand faster adoption of renewables in policy discussions.
What Policies Do Nigerians Actually Want?
The polling data reveal that Nigerians are pragmatic in their preferences for climate policy. They support measures that align with immediate needs—such as affordable energy, food security, and flood prevention—rather than abstract global targets.
- Solar Energy for All
About 68% of Nigerians favor large-scale solar investments, particularly in off-grid rural communities. The government’s plan to bring solar power to 5 million homes by 2025 received overwhelming approval (72%) in areas where blackouts are routine.
- Climate-Smart Farming
With agriculture employing nearly 40% of Nigerians, 81% of farmers support initiatives that provide drought-resistant seeds and irrigation training. For them, climate adaptation isn’t a political issue; it’s a matter of survival.
- Flood Defense Systems
After devastating floods in 2022 and 2024, 76% of urban residents and 89% of rural communities ranked flood prevention as a top priority. Many consider this a more pressing issue than reducing carbon emissions.
- The Gas Dilemma
Nigeria’s vast gas reserves complicate the energy transition. While 54% accept natural gas as a temporary “bridge fuel,” this support drops sharply among those who understand climate science. In oil-rich regions like the Niger Delta, resistance to rapid decarbonization is strong, with 62% of the population fearing job losses.
Why Some Nigerians Resist Climate Policies
Despite growing awareness, economic realities often trump environmental concerns.
- Poverty and Priorities: With inflation soaring and more than half of Nigerians living below the poverty line, many see climate policies as a luxury. A Lagos trader summarized the sentiment: “First, let there be light. Then we can talk about clean light.”
- Energy Poverty: Over 88 million Nigerians lack reliable electricity. When faced with a choice between dirty energy and no energy at all, most choose the former.
- Oil Dependence: The petroleum sector contributes 40% of government revenue and employs millions. In the Niger Delta, where oil is the lifeblood of the economy, calls for a “just transition” often fall on skeptical ears.
The Future of Climate Polling in Nigeria
Current surveys provide valuable insights, but they have blind spots. Most climate polls over-sample urban populations (72%), leaving rural voices underrepresented. Questions are often framed in ways that don’t reflect Nigeria’s unique challenges—asking whether people support “net-zero by 2060” means little to a farmer struggling with failed crops today.
To strengthen climate polling, experts recommend:
- More rural inclusion to capture the views of those most affected by climate change.
- Simpler, more relatable questions—instead of abstract terms like “decarbonization,” ask about practical solutions like “cheaper solar power” or “flood-resistant crops.”
- Long-term tracking to see how opinions shift as climate impacts worsen.
A Nation Weighing Its Options
Nigeria’s climate journey is not just about policies—it’s about people. The data shows a country that recognizes the threat of climate change but is cautious about solutions that overlook economic struggles. The path forward must strike a balance between urgency and inclusivity, ensuring that no one is left behind in the green transition.
As young activists push for faster action and oil communities demand job security, one thing is clear: Nigeria’s climate policies will only succeed if they are shaped by—and for—the people they aim to serve.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Nigeria Country Manager Michael Johnson.
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