An updated climate strategy aims to achieve a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 through initiatives focused on reforestation, renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture.

Mexico has made policy advances, but it must address its entrenched fossil-fuel dependency to achieve meaningful emission reductions. The groundwork is being laid, but stronger action is needed to meet climate goals.

New Data on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

No comprehensive new greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory for 2025 has been released, but existing sources suggest emissions are still rising:

• Climate Action Tracker (CAT): Mexico remains “Highly insufficient,” projecting emissions to increase through 2030 due to its reliance on fossil fuels and the construction of new infrastructure, such as the Dos Bocas refinery.
• IEA (2025): Fossil fuels still account for 75% of electricity generation, with renewables flat at 25% since 2021.
• Climate TRACE: Global datasets indicate no significant reductions in Mexico’s emissions.

Analysis: Mexico has yet to reverse its emissions trend, and current data highlights limited progress in reducing dependency on fossil fuels.

New Policies and Their Impact

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has introduced policies signaling a shift toward sustainability:

• Energy Reform: Approved in early 2025, it mandates that 54% of electricity be generated by the state utility, CFE, with private companies, mostly in renewable energy, supplying the rest.
• Updated Climate Strategy: Targets a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 through reforestation, renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture initiatives.
• Sustainable Finance: A national taxonomy was launched to guide investments into green projects.
  

However, fossil-fuel subsidies and investments, including the Dos Bocas refinery, continue to offset these measures, reflecting a mixed policy approach.

Analysis: While new policies show promise, their effectiveness depends on implementation and reducing the state’s reliance on fossil fuels.

Trends in Fossil Fuels and Renewables

Fossil Fuels:

• Fossil fuels dominate, accounting for 75% of electricity production. The government continues to subsidize oil and gas, and new projects, such as Dos Bocas, expand capacity.

Renewables:

• Renewables account for 25% of electricity, with wind and solar contributing around 13%. The energy reform and updated policies include mandates for battery storage and green infrastructure, but progress has been slow.

Future Outlook:
The renewable energy sector could grow with supportive policies, but entrenched fossil fuel infrastructure and subsidies limit its rapid expansion.

Rating: B – Moving Forward

Reasoning:

• Positive Developments: New policies under President Sheinbaum, including the energy reform and climate strategy, signal progress.
• Challenges: Fossil-fuel dominance persists, and emissions continue to rise.
• Potential: With effective implementation and reduced reliance on fossil fuels, Mexico could achieve significant progress.

Recommendations:

• Accelerate renewable energy projects, with a particular focus on solar, wind, and battery storage.
• Phase out fossil-fuel subsidies and halt expansions like Dos Bocas.
• Strengthen emissions tracking and reporting with annual GHG inventories.
• Enhance institutional capacity for enforcing climate policies.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Mexico Country Manager, Pablo Necoechea