There is little evidence of a structural break that would put total emissions on a firm downward path by 2026.
Türkiye’s latest official greenhouse gas inventory shows a clear long-term pattern: emissions have more than doubled since 1990 and were still rising in the most recent reporting year. Energy remains the dominant source, accounting for roughly three-quarters of total emissions, reflecting continued reliance on fossil fuels in power generation and industry.
The same trend is visible in transport. Road transport emissions, in particular, have grown steadily as the vehicle fleet has expanded and freight activity has increased. The latest GHG data do not yet show a large-scale shift to electrification or public transport that would reverse this growth by the mid-2020s. Industrial process emissions, from sectors such as cement and chemicals, also continue to edge upward in line with production. Agriculture and waste are more stable, showing only modest changes over time.
Based strictly on these inventory trends, there is little evidence of a structural break that would put total emissions on a firm downward path by 2026. A cautious estimate is that Türkiye’s emissions at the end of 2026 will be slightly higher, driven mainly by energy and transport, with smaller contributions from industry and broadly stable levels in agriculture and waste.
This trajectory raises questions about alignment with the Paris Agreement. Türkiye has set a long-term net-zero target for 2053, but the inventory data shows emissions still rising, not falling. If emissions continue to increase slightly by 2026, the burden on the 2030s and 2040s to deliver steep reductions will grow.
In short, the official data suggest that Türkiye is not yet at the turning point from slowing emissions growth to achieving absolute reductions. Without a rapid acceleration in clean energy, industrial decarbonization, and low-carbon transport, the country’s near-term path remains misaligned with the pace of change implied by the Paris Agreement.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkiye Country Manager, Ipek Taşgın.
Learn More Resources
TURKISH GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 – 2022, National Inventory Document for submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, TUIK, November 2024.