Saudi Arabia’s emissions are expected to be higher at the end of 2026, reaching around 713 million tonnes.
Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory, driven by its continued dependence on oil production, consumption, and exports, shows no sign of bending downward in the coming decade. On the contrary, its emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO2e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF), representing a 12–15% increase from 2023 levels.
Saudi Arabia’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have steadily increased by 280% since 1990. CO2 emissions went up from 677.74 million in 2023 to 693.13 million in 2024. (tons) in 2024, consistently contributing about 1.8% to the global emissions in the world. Using this emissions trajectory, Saudi Arabia’s emissions are expected to be higher at the end of 2026, reaching approximately 713 million tons.
Saudi Arabia’s CO2 emissions are dominated by the burning of fossil fuels for energy production, and industrial production of materials such as cement as 95% of the country’s emission stem from burning oil and gas while the rest from gas flaring and industrial production of materials like cement. CO2 emissions from oil and gas have been increasing over the last five years, while CO2 emissions from flaring and cement production remained constant.
Electricity and heating contributed the largest share of emissions, with 291 million tonnes, followed by transport and industry, emitting 141 million tonnes and 129 million tonnes, respectively. Noticeably, the manufacturing and construction sectors added 99.3 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. However, CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas (GHG) produced by Saudi Arabia. Others, including methane and nitrous oxide. Leakages from oil and gas production were responsible for most methane emissions, with 70.7 million tonnes, while waste and agricultural activities produced together around 45 million tonnes. GHG emissions of nitrous oxide mainly came from agriculture, industry, waste, and transport sectors in the Kingdom.
Based on the projected emissions trajectory, the current estimates indicate that Saudi Arabia is not on a pathway consistent with achieving Paris Agreement objectives such as a 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 or 2035, nor carbon neutrality by 2050. Instead of declining, total GHG emissions are expected to continue rising through 2030, driven primarily by sustained and expanding oil and gas production, energy-intensive electricity generation, transport demand, and industrial activity. A projected 12–15% increase in emissions by 2030 relative to 2023 levels is fundamentally incompatible with near-term deep decarbonization targets, which would require rapid absolute reductions across all major sectors.
The dominance of fossil fuel combustion, accounting for roughly 95% of emissions, means that incremental efficiency gains or isolated mitigation measures will not be sufficient to offset structural growth in energy use and hydrocarbon output. While methane, flaring, and industrial emissions present opportunities for targeted reductions, these alone cannot deliver the scale of cuts required under Paris-aligned scenarios. Under the current trajectory, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 would require an abrupt and unprecedented shift after 2030, involving large-scale deployment of renewable energy, deep electrification, demand reduction, aggressive methane abatement, carbon capture at scale, and potentially reliance on offsets. As such, the estimates primarily highlight the size of the ambition and policy gap rather than demonstrating progress toward Paris Agreement goals.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard’s Saudi Arabia Country Managers, Abeer Abdulkareem and Amgad Ellaboudy.