Turkiye has a development model that still relies on large infrastructure projects and continued use of fossil fuels, especially coal and natural gas, even as renewable energy capacity expands.

Türkiye’s climate policy sits at a familiar crossroads for many emerging economies. On paper, the country has embraced global climate goals, committing to net-zero emissions by 2053 and ratifying the Paris Agreement in 2021. In practice, however, economic development priorities continue to dominate policy choices, limiting the speed and scale of emissions reductions needed to align with the IPCC’s 1.5°C pathway.

Four closely interlinked priorities shape Türkiye’s economic development strategy. A central focus is maintaining export competitiveness and sustaining industrial growth. At the same time, energy security remains a key concern, with strong emphasis placed on expanding domestic energy supply, reducing dependence on imported fuels, and ensuring price stability for both industry and households. Job creation, regional development, and macroeconomic stability, including efforts to control inflation, support foreign exchange earnings, and reinforce a “development-first” policy mindset.

These priorities shape a development model that still relies on large infrastructure projects and continued use of fossil fuels, especially coal and natural gas, even as renewable energy capacity expands. International institutions such as the OECD and World Bank consistently observe that climate action in Türkiye is often framed not as a constraint on growth but as something that must not undermine competitiveness or social stability.

In recent years, Türkiye has taken several notable steps to strengthen its climate policy framework. These include a new Climate Law, planning an emissions trading system, and introducing a Green Action Plan linked to EU trade rules and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Nevertheless, based on current trajectories, Türkiye is unlikely to limit emissions growth in line with a 1.5°C pathway by 2030. Instead, emissions reductions are largely postponed to the post-2030 period; a conscious policy choice reflecting economic stress and political caution. 

Despite these challenges, the tension between climate change mitigation and economic development is not inevitable, and several practical pathways could help bridge the gap. One option is the introduction of carbon pricing through an emissions trading system or carbon tax, with revenues recycled back to industry to support efficiency upgrades, electrification, and technological innovation; studies cited by the Ministry of Environment and the EBRD indicate that such an approach could significantly reduce exporters’ exposure to CBAM costs while preserving competitiveness. 

Another pathway involves targeted industrial decarbonization, focusing initially on a limited number of high-emitting, export-oriented sectors such as cement and steel, where measures including green hydrogen pilots, waste heat recovery, and electrification could achieve substantial emissions reductions without causing economy-wide disruption. A further approach is to more explicitly link climate policy to trade and finance objectives by framing mitigation not as a purely environmental obligation but as a strategy for maintaining market access and attracting investment, particularly in relation to the EU.

Türkiye’s climate challenge is not a lack of awareness or ambition, but a structural tension between development-first policymaking and climate-first timelines. Without resolving this tension, climate change mitigation will remain conditional and vulnerable to economic pressures.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkiye Country Manager, Ipek Tasgin.