Sea-level rise remains underemphasized in Türkiye’s climate risk framework, primarily because it affects a limited geographic area while hazards such as drought and heat have a national reach.

Sea-level rise along Türkiye’s coastlines has been documented in multiple academic studies over the past two decades. Peer-reviewed articles and technical studies demonstrate that relative sea level along Turkish coasts has risen at rates broadly consistent with Mediterranean basin and global averages. Despite gaps in monitoring coverage, available data clearly show that sea-level rise is already influencing coastal systems. Studies often point to specific “hotspots” rather than a uniform national risk.

Much of Türkiye’s coastline is steep, rocky, or naturally elevated, reducing nationwide exposure. Vulnerability is especially high in the Çukurova Delta, the Gediz and Büyük Menderes river systems, parts of the Marmara coast, selected Black Sea estuaries, and industrial or tourism-intensive zones. In these areas, even moderate sea-level rise can generate disproportionate social and economic impacts due to dense development and environmental sensitivity.

Despite this evidence, sea-level rise remains underemphasized in Türkiye’s climate risk framework, primarily because it affects a limited geographic area. At the same time, hazards such as drought and heat have a national reach. Its slow-onset nature, incomplete long-term monitoring, and economic sensitivities related to coastal land use further reduce its visibility in policy agendas. 

Insurance systems are also expected to evolve in response to coastal risk. Although Türkiye does not yet operate a fully climate-indexed insurance framework, international experience suggests that insurers eventually adjust premiums, coverage terms, and exclusions in response to rising losses. Over time, this may lead to higher premiums for coastal properties, reduced availability of coverage in high-risk locations, or increased use of state-backed risk-pooling mechanisms. Properties subject to repeated flooding may become difficult or impossible to insure through standard private mechanisms.

Sea-level rise is therefore a real and structurally significant risk for Türkiye’s coastal regions. Its limited geographical reach does not reduce its severity where it occurs. Delayed action will raise long-term costs; early adaptation is economically preferable.

 This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Türkiye Country Manager, Ipek Tasgin.