Political forces, leadership, technical capacity, media narratives, and popular opinion are deeply intertwined in shaping the nation’s climate trajectory

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy and one of its top greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, has pledged ambitious climate targets: a 46% cut in emissions by 2030 (from 2013 levels) and net-zero by 2050. Yet achieving these goals requires more than technical ingenuity or industrial policy. Political forces, leadership, technical capacity, media narratives, and popular opinion are deeply intertwined in shaping the nation’s climate trajectory. These forces help explain both the country’s incremental progress and its latent potential to lead on climate action, provided the tensions between energy security, economic imperatives, and environmental responsibility are reconciled.

Political Leadership in Balancing Ambition and Energy Security 

Japan’s political landscape is dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), now led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to be formally confirmed by the Diet on October 20, 2025. Her administration promotes climate action through the “Green Transformation” (GX) strategy, which emphasizes renewables, hydrogen, and a renewed commitment to nuclear energy. On paper, this strategy appears pragmatic. In practice, however, political constraints and entrenched interests have led to compromises.

Japan continues to rely heavily on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), importing substantial volumes to stabilize its energy supply. Takaichi’s government has also supported overseas coal financing in Southeast Asia, a move that has drawn international criticism for undermining Japan’s climate diplomacy. Domestically, fossil fuel–linked industries retain significant influence, making rapid decarbonization politically and economically challenging.

Nuclear power remains a divisive issue. While the government frames it as a “bridge” to carbon neutrality, public skepticism, rooted in the legacy of the Fukushima disaster, continues to slow reactor restarts. Takaichi is expected to govern amid this tension: committed to emissions reduction, yet constrained by energy security concerns and voter unease. Notably, she supports selective renewable technologies but prioritizes nuclear power and energy self-sufficiency over broad expansion of renewables. She is skeptical of imported solar panels and instead favors domestic innovation, such as perovskite solar cells. Takaichi has pledged to make Japan “100% energy self-sufficient” (Lo, 2025), positioning nuclear energy as central to reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports. As a result, Japan enters a politically sensitive phase in which public resistance to nuclear energy may increasingly clash with the prime minister’s pro-nuclear agenda, creating friction in both policymaking and public discourse.

Strengths and Bottlenecks in Technical Capacity

Regardless of the skepticism, Japan is a climate leader in emissions monitoring. The Ministry of the Environment and the Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office maintain one of the world’s most transparent reporting systems, ensuring compliance with the Paris Agreement.

Technologically, Japan excels in nuclear, solar, offshore wind, hydrogen, and energy efficiency. The feed-in tariff system drove a solar boom in the 2010s. However, high land costs and limited space constrain further expansion. Offshore wind shows promise but faces regulatory delays; approvals can take years, deterring investors.

Hydrogen and carbon-capture technologies are central to the GX roadmap, but remain expensive and unproven at scale. Without faster deployment of mainstream renewables, Japan’s reliance on LNG and coal risks overwhelming these innovations.

Nevertheless, how does Japan’s emissions trail targets? Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions have declined modestly since 2020. However, the gap between current levels and 2030/2050 targets remains significant. The data highlight just how urgent it is to accelerate renewable deployment and phase out coal to meet climate commitments.  

A case in point is Akita Prefecture’s offshore wind project, Japan’s first commercial-scale installation, which demonstrates potential. It created hundreds of jobs and revitalized local ports. Yet similar projects face years of bureaucratic hurdles, highlighting the need for streamlined permitting.

Media Narratives in Shaping Public Perception

Japan’s media landscape plays a pivotal role in climate discourse. Progressive outlets like the Asahi Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun emphasize urgency, publishing editorials that hold government policies accountable and promote renewables as economically viable.

Conservative outlets, such as the Yomiuri Shimbun, focus on stability and affordability, endorsing nuclear restarts and cautioning against rapid transitions. Television, Japan’s most widely consumed medium, often simplifies climate debates into economic storylines, focusing on issues such as rising electricity bills, energy shortages, or nuclear safety.

This framing influences public attitudes. Climate concerns are acknowledged but often treated as secondary to economic and security issues. The divergence reveals a paradox: Japan has the technical and economic knowledge to lead, but narrative emphasis on costs may prevent citizens from seeing decarbonization as an opportunity.

Supportive but Uneven Public Opinion

Surveys show broad support for climate targets, but generational divides persist. Young people and urban residents, particularly in Tokyo and Osaka, tend to favor renewable energy and energy-efficient practices. Influenced by global movements, many people express frustration with Japan’s slower pace compared to Europe’s.

Youth voices matter: In 2024, student-led groups like Fridays for Future Japan organized teach-ins and climate forums, urging policymakers to accelerate coal phase-outs and invest in green jobs. While modest in scale, these actions signal growing engagement.

Older voters and core LDP supporters tend to be more cautious. Their skepticism of nuclear power is strong, but many also fear price shocks and blackouts if fossil fuels are phased out too quickly. In rural areas, where energy-intensive industries are prevalent, economic protection often takes precedence over climate urgency.

Japanese citizens tend to show quieter, more individual support compared to the large-scale climate marches seen overseas. For example, climate support often manifests through lifestyle adjustments, recycling, reduced electricity use, and modest adoption of renewable energy. While commendable, these actions alone cannot restructure Japan’s energy mix without systemic reform.

Actions to Advance Emissions Reduction

Among political forces, media outlets can exert a significant impact by reframing climate narratives in terms of economic opportunities. Highlighting success stories, such as Akita’s wind industry or solar cooperatives in Nagano, could shift public debates from short-term costs to long-term benefits.

Political leadership must also take bold steps, starting with a clear phase-out timeline for coal. Unlike vague references to reducing coal dependence, a definitive schedule with milestones, aligned with other advanced economies, would provide industry with planning certainty, accelerate renewable investment, and send a strong diplomatic signal.

Japan’s emissions trajectory is shaped not by a single factor but by the interplay of leadership, technical capacity, media framing, and public sentiment. Each force pulls the country in different directions: toward ambitious pledges, partial reliance on fossil fuels, innovative technologies, cautious citizens, and varied media narratives.

To achieve its 2050 net-zero goal, Japan must recalibrate its approach under new leadership. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration brings a renewed focus on energy independence, with nuclear power positioned as a cornerstone of national strategy. This shift may accelerate low-carbon energy deployment but also risks deepening tensions with a public wary of nuclear restarts. The path forward will require not only technical innovation but also political courage and inclusive dialogue. Furthermore, more decisive leadership on coal phase-out and renewable expansion, paired with media reframing of climate action as an economic and security opportunity, can galvanize citizen support and industry confidence. In this evolving landscape, Japan has the potential to move from cautious steps to bold decisions, proving that even amid political complexity, an advanced economy can lead the global climate transition.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Japan Country Manager, Delmaria Richards.

Edited by Diana Gastelum.

Learn More Resources

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2. Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan. (2024, August 12). GX (Green Transformation) basic policy and roadmap. https://japan.influencemap.org/policy/GX-Green-Transformation-5477
3. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan. (2025, July 28). GHG emissions data of Japan (1990–2023). https://www.nies.go.jp/gio/en/
4. GR Japan. (2023, January). Overview of Japan’s green transformation (GX). https://grjapan.com/sites/default/files/content/articles/files/gr_japan_overview_of_gx_plans_january_2023.pdf
5. International Energy Agency. (2021). Japan 2021 energy policy review. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/japan-2021-energy-policy-review_72bb987a-en.html
6. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. (2025, March 2). IGES GHG emissions database. https://www.iges.or.jp/en/pub/iges-ghg-emissions-data-0/en
7. Lo, W. (2025, October 7). Japan to get new PM: Why Sanae Takaichi bets big on nuclear and selective on solar. https://www.reccessary.com/en/news/japan-new-pm-takaichi-nuclearMinistry of Economy, Trade and Industry. (2023, February 10). Outline of the basic policy for the realization of GX (Green Transformation). https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2023/pdf/0210_003b.pdf
8. Ministry of the Environment, Japan. (2024, April 11). Japan’s national greenhouse gas emissions and removals in fiscal year 2022. https://www.env.go.jp/en/press/press_02707.html
9. Nippon Communications Foundation. (2022, January 17). Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions for fiscal 2020 lowest on record. https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01204/