The Ministry of the Environment reported a 2.8% decrease in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, a trend attributed to improved industrial energy efficiency and a milder winter. However several persistent challenges hinder faster decarbonization, particularly in reducing fossil fuel dependency and reforming the transport sector.

As the climate crisis intensifies in 2025, nations worldwide are racing to stay on track with their climate commitments. For Japan—a G7 economy with net-zero ambitions by 2050—the first half of 2025 tells a nuanced story. While data reveals some progress in reducing emissions and advancing renewable energy, several persistent challenges hinder faster decarbonization, particularly in reducing fossil fuel dependency and reforming the transport sector.

Japan’s performance is assessed here using a four-point scorecard scale (Figure 1), reflecting its mid-year standing based on recent emissions data, policy developments, and energy transition indicators. This post addresses three main questions to assess Japan’s progress on climate in 2025:

1. Has Japan produced any new data reflecting changes in greenhouse gas emissions and the effectiveness of its emission policies?
2. Have any new or improved policies been implemented that impact emissions?

Has there been a decrease in fossil fuel use alongside an increase in the adoption of renewable energy?

Figure 1. Climate Scorecard ranking

1. New Emissions Data: A Modest Gains, Sectoral Disparities
Japan has demonstrated steady progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past five years, underpinned by a blend of targeted policies and technological innovation. The Ministry of the Environment reported a 2.8% decrease in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, a trend attributed to improved industrial energy efficiency and a milder winter, which reduced heating demand. According to the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have declined from 1,272.47 MtCO₂eq in 1990 to an estimated 1,070 MtCO₂eq in 2025 (Figure 2), reflecting a long-term downward trend.

However, sectoral disparities persist. While industrial emissions continue to decline, the transport sector experienced a 1.5% increase in emissions during the early part of 2025, driven by a rebound in domestic travel and a sluggish electrification of commercial vehicles. Meanwhile, carbon sequestration efforts weakened slightly due to reduced afforestation and localized wildfires in Okayama, Imabari, Kushiro,   Ofunato, along with other places. Urban centers such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya have expanded low-emission zones and promoted cleaner vehicles; however, nationwide progress in decarbonizing transportation and agriculture remains incremental.

Despite these challenges, Japan’s emissions intensity per capita and unit of GDP continue to improve, underscoring the effectiveness of longstanding efficiency measures. To meet its 2030 interim targets and strengthen carbon sinks, Japan will need deeper reforms in transport electrification, agricultural practices, and forest management.

Figure 2. Japan GHG Per Capita Emissions Trend (2020–2025)

2. Policy Developments: Progressive Intent, Mixed Implementation
Over the past five years, Japan has enacted a series of ambitious climate policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The Green Growth Strategy (2020–2022) mobilized public and private investment across 14 priority sectors, including hydrogen, offshore wind, battery storage, and next-generation solar. This was reinforced by the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan in October 2021, which raised the 2030 renewable energy target to 36–38% of the electricity mix—nearly double the 2019 share—and called for a sharp reduction in coal-fired generation.

Legislative momentum continued with the Revised Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures (May 2021), which codified the net-zero goal and required climate action plans at both national and local levels. In 2023, Japan introduced a Methane Action Plan in line with the Global Methane Pledge, targeting emissions from agriculture and waste and supporting the development of new abatement technologies. Urban sustainability initiatives have accelerated since 2023, with major cities expanding low-emission zones, incentivizing the adoption of cleaner vehicles, and phasing out older diesel models.

Reforms to the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) system and updates to grid codes between 2022 and 2024 have fostered more competitive renewable energy pricing and smoothed the integration of distributed solar, wind, and battery storage into the national grid. Despite these advances, implementation has been uneven: grid upgrades have lagged, rural resistance has slowed the implementation of methane controls, and a reliance on fossil fuels remains a significant challenge.

Collectively, these measures (Figure 3) demonstrate Japan’s commitment to striking a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. However, to translate legislative ambition into measurable impact, Japan must accelerate policy execution, empower regional governments, and deepen public-private partnerships for renewable infrastructure.

Figure 3. Timeline of Major Climate Policy Developments (2020–2025)

While these initiatives reflect growing awareness and commitment, their implementation is still in the early stages. For example, although the Green Grid Acceleration Act has been passed, large-scale grid upgrades have yet to commence. Additionally, resistance from rural sectors has delayed the rollout of methane control measures (Post # 87). In short, while the legislative intent is promising, the real-world impacts have remained limited thus far.

3. Energy System Trends: Renewables Rise, Fossil Fuels Linger
Japan continues its slow but steady transition away from fossil fuels. Renewables now account for 26% of electricity generation, comprising solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and geothermal sources, with solar and hydro making up the most significant shares, up from 20% in 2020. The main contributors to this growth are offshore wind projects in Hokkaido and solar installations in Shikoku and Kyushu. Japan is still working to accelerate deployment to meet its 2030 target of 36–38% renewables.

Figure 4. Energy Mix in Japan (2025)

Japan’s energy transition is showing incremental progress, with renewables gradually increasing their share in the national energy mix. However, the current rate of expansion remains insufficient to meet both the urgency of the climate crisis and the government’s long-term decarbonization commitments. The country’s continued dependence on imported fossil fuels not only complicates efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also leaves Japan vulnerable to international supply disruptions and price volatility. Looking ahead, Japanese policymakers have set ambitious goals, such as significantly increasing solar power capacity by 2030 and exploring the development of a North-East Asia Super Grid to connect with South Korea and China. While these initiatives signal a forward-looking approach, most remain in the planning or early implementation stages, and achieving them will require overcoming regulatory, technical, and diplomatic challenges. Overall, Japan’s energy strategy is evolving, but further acceleration and concrete action are needed to align with global climate objectives.

Japan’s 2025 Emissions Grade: B
Based on the trajectory for future nature-positive solutions (as of May 2025) and Japan’s performance in emission reduction, Japan earns a solid B on its 2025 Mid-Year Emissions Report Card. The country is making progress with measurable reductions in emissions, the introduction of new policies, and a continued shift toward renewable energy sources. Nonetheless, the pace of transformation, particularly in transportation, fossil fuel reduction, and policy execution, must intensify to align with the 2030 and 2050 benchmarks. 

Table 1. Reasons for scoring and significant challenges in impacting climate change
Reasons for the Grade	Challenges
Reduction in emissions (−2.8%)	Introduction of promising legislative tools
Expansion of renewable energy use	transport emissions increasing
Introduction of promising legislative tools	Persistent fossil fuel dependency

Moreover, compared to other industrialized nations, Japan’s renewable energy share in electricity generation is midrange, examining 2025 projections (Figure 5 ). Germany leads the pack with aggressive targets and infrastructure, while South Korea is catching up after a slower start. Japan and the U.S. are both making steady progress, though Japan’s grid constraints and land limitations pose unique challenges. Among these four countries, Germany leads the pack with aggressive targets and infrastructure, while South Korea is catching up after a slower start. Japan and the U.S. are both making steady progress, though Japan’s grid constraints and land limitations pose unique challenges.

Figure 5. Global Shift Toward Clean Power (2020–2025)

Japan’s mid-year climate performance in 2025 reflects a nation making meaningful progress, yet still tethered to the carbon-heavy legacy of its past. The data shows that while progress is real, it remains insufficient. For Japan to lead on climate change, policy execution must match ambition, and fossil fuel dependency must give way to sustainable systems. As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the imperative is clear: Japan must turn legislative promise into rapid action, empower regional governments, and deepen partnerships to enable scalable renewable infrastructure.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Japan Country Manager Delmaria Richards.