While there are clear signs of progress when examining the overall trends—particularly in emissions reductions and renewable energy deployment—the weather-related setbacks and the temporary resurgence of coal-fired power generation highlight ongoing vulnerabilities.
As Germany progresses through 2025, its efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions present a picture of cautious optimism mixed with emerging challenges. The first half of the year has demonstrated both notable successes and areas where setbacks threaten to undermine overall progress—according to the latest data released in March 2025 by the Umweltbundesamt, the German Environmental Agency, emissions in 2024 decreased by approximately 3.4% compared to 2023, resulting in a total of around 649 million tons of CO₂ equivalent. While this decline highlights ongoing efforts to reduce the country’s carbon footprint, recent developments in energy production and policy shifts reveal the complexities and vulnerabilities that Germany must navigate as it strives to meet its long-term climate commitments.
These developments suggest that Germany is on a generally promising trajectory toward its 2030 climate targets. Projections indicate that, if current policies are maintained, the country could achieve a reduction of around 63% in emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2030, bringing it close to the targeted 65%. The energy sector is expected to continue outperforming its cumulative reduction goals for the 2021–2030 period by approximately 250 million tons of CO₂e, underscoring the effectiveness of recent policy measures and investments in renewables. Such achievements highlight the country’s commitment and capacity to make meaningful progress, especially in its electricity production, which is crucial for broader reductions in emissions.
However, the first half of 2025 also exposed persistent vulnerabilities that threaten to slow down or reverse some of these gains. One of the most notable indicators of this is the significant decline in renewable energy generation during this period. Data from the Energy Monitor shows that from January to April 2025, total clean energy output fell by 16% compared to the same months in 2024. This decline marks the lowest level of renewable energy production since at least 2015, raising concerns about the reliability and resilience of renewable sources under variable weather conditions. Wind power, which had previously accounted for about 34% of electricity generation, declined to just 24% during this period. The primary cause was unusually low wind speeds, which significantly impacted wind turbine output, despite recent capacity increases—approximately a 30% rise in wind generation capacity over the past few years. This discrepancy underscores the vulnerability of wind energy to short-term weather fluctuations and highlights a critical challenge in maintaining a steady supply of renewable energy.
The decline in renewable energy output has had immediate consequences, prompting a shift back toward fossil fuels. Coal-fired power generation, which had been steadily decreasing, increased by 16%, producing approximately 40 terawatt-hours of electricity and resulting in nearly 42 million tons of CO₂ emissions, levels comparable to those observed in 2023. This resurgence of coal use reflects the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels when renewable sources underperform, revealing the fragility of the country’s energy transition at this juncture. Meanwhile, natural gas generation experienced a slight decrease of about 9%, primarily due to high gas prices during this period. While this reduction temporarily lowered emissions, it also introduces uncertainty; falling gas prices in the future could incentivize increased reliance on natural gas, which, although cleaner than coal, still contributes to overall emissions and complicates the pathway to decarbonization.
On the policy front, the German Climate Change Act remains the overarching legal framework guiding emissions reduction efforts. The law sets sector-specific and economy-wide emission budgets through 2030, with long-term targets extending to 2040. However, in 2024, the legislation was amended to allow for sectoral compensation if individual sectors exceed their allocated budgets. This change replaced fixed sectoral targets with a collective annual emissions budget that covers all sectors, aiming to provide greater flexibility. Critics argue that this shift weakens enforcement mechanisms and increases the risk that Germany might miss its legally binding EU climate commitments, especially if sectors are not held accountable for exceeding their shares.
Overall, Germany’s performance in the first half of 2025 reveals a mixed picture. While there are clear signs of progress when examining the overall trends—particularly in emissions reductions and renewable energy deployment—the weather-related setbacks and the temporary resurgence of coal-fired power generation highlight ongoing vulnerabilities. These challenges underscore the importance of building resilience into the energy system, ensuring that renewable sources can reliably meet demand despite variable weather conditions. They also highlight the necessity for continuous policy adaptation and strategic planning to sustain and accelerate progress toward ambitious climate targets.
In summary, Germany remains committed to its climate goals. Nevertheless, the setbacks and uncertainties experienced so far serve as a reminder that sustained effort, innovation, and resilience are essential to maintaining momentum. Based on these considerations, Germany’s overall rating for 2025 would be a B, acknowledging tangible advances, but emphasizing the need for intensified actions and strategic resilience to stay on course for its long-term climate commitments.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Germany Country Manager, Monique de Ritter.