On July 17, 2025, the National Congress approved measures that relax environmental licensing and reduce protections for forest areas and indigenous communities.
The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System (SEEG) recently released updated data showing a slight reduction in total national emissions in 2023, a trend that appears to have stagnated by the first half of 2025. Preliminary figures indicate that, after a roughly 7% drop in emissions between 2022 and 2023 (driven primarily by reduced deforestation in the Amazon during that period), recent news suggests a stabilization between 2024 and early 2025 (official, audited data is still pending). Recent signs, however, indicate a risk of reversal, with deforestation rising again in some states due to domestic and global political pressures. Furthermore, the commencement of oil exploration in the Amazon region raises a crucial concern: in addition to the risk of direct impacts on biomes and local communities, there is a significant potential for increased future emissions, jeopardizing the country’s climate commitments. The energy sector showed slight improvement, with stabilization of fossil fuel consumption. Transportation, however, did not see a significant reduction.
Between 2023 and the first half of 2025, Brazil maintained policies aimed at combating deforestation and announced plans to expand its renewable energy sector. However, there was a major setback on July 17, 2025: the National Congress approved measures that relaxed environmental licensing and reduced protections for forest areas and indigenous communities. Such a setback could quickly impact deforestation rates, potentially favoring increased emissions from the land-use and land-use change sectors. The authorization for oil exploration in the Amazon region adds to this scenario of setbacks, contradicting scientific recommendations and those of international organizations regarding the protection of the planet’s most sensitive biomes. National and international environmental organizations have warned of the negative impact of these legislative changes, which offset previous advances.
Brazil remains a leader in the use of renewable sources in its electricity grid, with over 85% of its energy coming from hydroelectric, solar, and wind power. Between 2023 and 2025, solar and wind generation continued to grow, but the share of fossil fuels, particularly in transportation and industry, remained high and virtually unchanged. There has been no significant reduction in the use of oil, gas, and coal. The new opening for oil exploration in the Amazon poses a clear risk of intensifying dependence on fossil fuels, hindering the transition to a cleaner energy grid. Thus, despite sectoral advances, the full energy transition still faces significant bottlenecks. With the recent easing of environmental regulations and the stimulus for oil exploration, the outlook for renewable expansion and fossil fuel reduction becomes even more uncertain.
Grade: C – Standing Still
Despite some recent advances, especially in renewable energy, the retreat from environmental policies, the stagnation in emissions reductions by 2025, and the expansion of oil exploration in the Amazon have positioned Brazil at a point of inertia. The risk of future increases in emissions, driven by the weakening of environmental laws and the emergence of the new Amazonian oil boom, tends to offset any progress achieved. The country remains on an even keel: neither advancing nor retreating drastically, but it could quickly reverse course if political and economic setbacks persist.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager, Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira.