Road transport in the European Union (EU) currently accounts for around 25% of all emissions. To reduce its environmental impact, the EU has set an ambitious goal of putting at least 30 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030—equivalent to roughly 12% of today’s total vehicle fleet. Although reaching this figure will require concerted effort, the rapid increase in EV registrations in recent years suggests it may be achievable.
Figure 1: Total stock of EVs in the EU (2010-2023) (data: Statistica)
Over the last decade, the EU has seen significant growth in electric vehicles. By 2019, an estimated 1.11 million electric cars were on the road, split between approximately 610,000 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and 500,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)—though reported totals vary slightly by source. In relative terms, this number falls well short of the 12% target, accounting for 3.1% of all cars in the EU[1], with countries like Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands showing higher adoption rates.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the EU’s EV population has grown to around 8.1 million (comprised of approximately 4.6 million BEVs and 3.5 million PHEVs). This total accounts for an estimated 3.1% of all passenger cars in the EU, falling short of the 12% goal but reflecting a substantial increase from 2019 levels. Some countries—such as Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands—post higher-than-average adoption rates, while others lag.
Looking ahead, Several organizations have offered projections for how quickly EVs might scale:
- European Commission: In its December 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the Commission reaffirmed its goal of at least 30 million zero-emission cars by 2030.
- European Climate Foundation: The foundation suggests the EU could exceed this target, projecting around 60 million EVs on European roads by 2030 if policies and market growth remain favorable.
Longer-term forecasts are still more speculative. However, many analysts predict that by 2040, 50% of the EU’s passenger car fleet could be electric, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicting that it could be as high as 80%. Assuming the EU car stock could reach 250-280 million by 2040, this could translate into around 200 million EVs on Europe’s roads.
However, these predictions are a long way from being guaranteed, and the proposed growth will depend on several factors: consumer acceptance, cost, infrastructure, and regulatory consistency.
One essential factor in easing EV adoption is the availability of reliable charging infrastructure. By late 2023, the EU had roughly 632,000 public charging points—serving an estimated 4.6 million BEVs—though 61% of these chargers are located in just three countries: the Netherlands, France, and Germany. This uneven distribution underscores the need for further expansion, as the EU’s official 2030 target is 3.5 million public chargers. To meet that goal, experts estimate the EU must add around 410,000 new charging points per year, especially in countries currently underserved by charging infrastructure[2].
Several European countries have scaled back or phased out direct purchase subsidies for EVs in the last few years. Once a major supporter of electric vehicles, Germany ended subsidies for PHEVs at the end of 2022 and reduced incentives for pure BEVs in 2023. This will likely contribute to a slowdown in BEV sales growth. Other countries, such as the Netherlands and Norway, have also gradually shifted away from direct cash incentives toward tax rebates, company-car incentives, or road toll exemptions, often less generous than previous cash grants.
These changes, alongside rising electricity prices linked to the broader energy crisis, have tempered demand. Nevertheless, the EU maintains strict emissions standards and plans to phase out new combustion-engine car sales by 2035[3], effectively ensuring a regulatory push toward zero-emission vehicles. Meanwhile, competition from Chinese EV manufacturers and high production costs in Europe have added pressure on policymakers to adjust the details of the 2035 ban, balancing environmental goals with the potential risks to local industry.
While Europe has made considerable strides in expanding its EV fleet, from barely over a million in 2019 to more than eight million in 2023, reaching the targeted 30 million zero-emission cars by 2030 will require consistent policy support, expanded charging infrastructure, and price competitiveness. Long-term projections show the potential for a predominantly electric passenger car market in the EU by 2040, but meeting these aspirations depends on sustained investment, innovation, and regulatory clarity. In the present political environment, the calculus of the climate vs. the industry seems less clear; if the EU pulls back now, it may miss its chance to achieve its goal of making transport a significantly lower-emissions sector.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard EU Manager George Scott.
Learn More Resources:
https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/europe#analyst-opinion
https://www.politico.eu/article/5-things-to-know-europe-electric-vehicle-transition-green-deal/
https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/EV-EU-Factbook-2020.pdf
[1] In 2023, the number of the EU-registered passenger cars exceeded 256 million, corresponding to an increase of 6.5% as compared with 2018. The highest number of registered passenger cars was observed in Germany with 49 million cars.
[2] https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/document-files/2024-05/Charging_ahead_Accelerating_the_roll-out_of_EU_electric_vehicle_charging_infrastructure.pdf
[3] https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/policy-developments