Germany’s energy landscape has undergone significant transformation over the past decade, with renewables increasingly supplanting fossil fuels in the energy mix, especially when considering electricity generation. Although the statistics may vary depending on the source, one can see in the below graph (from the UBA Umweltbundesamt, the main German environmental protection agency) that as of 2023, renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, and biomass, provided more than 65% of the country’s net electricity generation. This marks a substantial shift from ten years ago when renewables accounted for around 25% of the energy mix, and an even higher increase in the share (%) of renewable energy in power generation in Germany when comparing 21 years ago, since 2002, renewables accounted only for 8,9%.
In contrast, electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas has sharply declined, particularly in the last few years , as explained in previous posts over the last few months.
Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Fraunhofer ISE, UBA
Trend Analysis (2013-2023): The past decade has been characterized by rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, driven by substantial investments and supportive government policies to reduce carbon emissions. Wind and solar power, in particular, have seen exponential growth, with both energy sources becoming the largest contributors to Germany’s electricity supply, as seen in the graph below. Meanwhile, the role of coal has diminished significantly due to environmental regulations discussed in previous posts and the increasing competitiveness of renewables. In contrast, as planned, the last nuclear plants were shut down in April 2023. Source: Fraunhofer ISE
Source: Fraunhofer, Clean Energy Wire
On the other hand, when analyzing expected upcoming development, the major renewable energy efforts will be in transport and heating, the sectors with the least change over time. “Based on current information, the total amount of biofuels used in transport was at the same level as in the previous year’s first half. In contrast, the use of renewable electricity in the transport sector increased by 16 percent, as not only did the renewable share in the electricity sector grow, but so did the number of electrically powered vehicles. The amount of renewable electricity used in the transport sector corresponds to just under three percent of the green electricity used in Germany. Around 70 percent of this is used in rail transport and today around 30 percent in road transport.” Moreover, the new heating reform regulations from the current government are expected to increase the share of renewable sources over the next few years for this sector, despite a plug of sales of heat pumps this year, compared to the same period last (according to the UBA). Three-quarters of renewable heat still comes from biomass, around 6 percent from biogenic waste, and around 4 percent from solar thermal systems.”
“Current figures from the German Environment Agency (UBA) for the first half of 2024 show that electricity generation from renewable energies increased by nine percent compared to last year. However, capacity expansion must be further accelerated to meet climate and energy targets. In the heating sector, mild weather led to lower demand for heating. In the mobility sector, the use of renewable electricity in transport increased slightly.”
The Renewable energy in the current year, development of the first semester since 2020 for electricity (Strom), Heating (Wärme), and Transport (Verkehr) Source: UBA, Press release July 2024
Expected Trends (2024-2034): The trend towards renewable energy dominance is expected to continue, bolstered by Germany’s ambitious target of achieving 80% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. The phase-out of coal and the cessation of nuclear power in 2023 will further accelerate the transition. However, achieving these targets will require overcoming challenges such as the slow pace of wind farm expansion and significant grid infrastructure upgrades to handle the intermittent nature of renewable energy.
Factors Influencing Current Trends: Several factors have driven the current energy trends in Germany. The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster prompted Germany to accelerate its nuclear phase-out, while the war in Ukraine in 2022 highlighted the risks of dependence on fossil fuel imports, particularly from Russia. These geopolitical developments have strongly influenced Germany’s commitment to renewable energy. Moreover, technological advancements have reduced the cost of renewable energy, making it more competitive with fossil fuels—source: Clean Energy Wire.
Recommendations for Policy and Action:
- Accelerating Grid Modernization: Germany must invest in modernizing its electricity grid to accommodate the growing share of renewable energy. This includes enhancing storage capabilities and improving grid resilience to manage the variability of wind and solar power.
- Streamlining Permitting Processes for Renewable Projects: Reducing the bureaucratic hurdles for developing wind and solar projects can help accelerate deployment. This involves simplifying and expediting the approval processes for new projects.
- Expanding Energy Storage Solutions: Investment in energy storage technologies, such as batteries and pumped hydro storage, will be critical to balance supply and demand and ensure a stable energy supply as the share of renewables increases.
Source: Clean Energy Wire
In conclusion, Germany’s energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is well underway, with significant progress made over the past decade. Continued policy support, technological innovation, and infrastructure investment will be essential to meet future energy targets and ensure a sustainable and reliable energy supply.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Germany Country Manager Katherine Cote.