According to the Director-General of the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC)

 General status of passenger cars in the country

The International Trade Administration cites a report by the National Bureau of statistics released in 2018 which put the total number of vehicles in Nigeria at 11.8 million. Of this number, 4.6 million are under private ownership, 135,000 are state-owned, 5,834 belong to diplomats, and 6.7 million are for commercial purposes. While the number of passenger cars is not specifically stated, considering that the number of commercial vehicles is highlighted, we may assume that the aggregation of privately owned, diplomat-owned, and state-owned vehicles totaling 4,740,834 constitute the number of passenger cars as of 2018. Considering that the local production of vehicles generally and passenger cars more specifically cannot meet demand, most of the vehicles in Nigeria are imported. 31 local producers are licensed in the country and seven have begun to assemble but this is still not sufficient to meet local demand.

New Passenger cars: 2020 – 2022

According to Statista, the unit sales of new and basic models of passenger cars in Nigeria as of June 2022 was 15,170. While the year is not over yet, this number was 13,140 and 17,650 in 2021 and 2020 showing an increase in unit sales over a one-year period (2021-2022) and a current decrease over a two-year period (2020 & 2022). The pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are responsible for this decrease in sales over a two-year period. This is because both have had an adverse effect on the global supply chain resulting in a reduction in the rate at which manufacturers produce passenger cars. Of these number of unit sales in Nigeria, most of them still use petrol as a source of energy. Other kinds of sources of energy include petrol, diesel, electric, hybrid, and alternative. Interestingly, the percentage of unit sales that use petrol has declined consistently since 2020. The percentage of unit sales that use petrol for 2020, 2021, and 2022 is 88.57%; 86.93%, and 84.77% respectively. The number of unit sales running on diesel for 2020, 2021, and 2022 is 4.65%, 4.48%, and 4.37% respectively. Although it is important to note that the 2022 data is as of June 2022, leaving another six months for the complete data for 2022. In the same breath, the number of unit sales of hybrid and electric cars has increased consistently. For hybrid cars, it was 1.75%, 2.33%, and 2.83% in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Again, this number might yet increase as the final six months in 2022 are not captured in the analysis. For unit sales of electric cars in Nigeria in 2020, 2021, and 2022, the numbers are 4.22%, 5.40%, and 7.11% respectively.

Electric vehicles and hybrids

The numbers above show a marked difference between the number of units of new petrol and diesel passenger cars sold on the one hand and hybrid or electric cars sold on the other hand. Petrol still constitutes a substantial chunk of fueling for passenger cars, followed by diesel. From the numbers stated above, there is an increased uptake of both hybrids and electric vehicles, with unit sales of electric passenger cars exceeding the unit sales of diesel passenger cars in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Statista projects a continued rise in the uptake of both electric cars and hybrids. It projects that the unit sales of electric cars in Nigeria will increase from 7.11% in 2022 to 9.61%, 13.10%, 17.78%, and 23.82% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The unit sales of hybrid cars will increase from 2.83% in 2022 to 3.29%, 3.69%, 3.98%, and 4.14% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. While most of the electric vehicles in Nigeria are imported, the first indigenous electric vehicle debuted in June 2021.  The momentum for the indigenous production of electric vehicles in Nigeria is further sustained by a recent memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the Federal Government of Nigeria and Nigerian, Israeli and Japanese companies for the beginning of the assembly and production of electric vehicles by 2023. In 2021, the director-general of the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC) projected that in ten years, 50% of the vehicles on the roads will be locally built or assembled electric vehicles.

The transport sector and greenhouse gas emissions

Using available data from Climate Transparency, the transport industry generally contributed the most substantial CO2 emissions from fuel combustion year after year from 1990 – 2019. In 2019, it contributed 61% of CO2 emissions while other sectors like the power and industrial sectors contributed 11% and 12% respectively. It is expected that between 2010 and 2035 fuel consumption in the transport sector will rise by 680% owing to the overall vehicle kilometers driven. There is the more readily available information on the total CO2 emissions contribution of the transport sector in general than there is on passenger cars’ specific contribution to greenhouse gas emission levels in the country. Nevertheless, the Federal Government’s long-term vision for the transport sector for zero carbon emissions by 2050 is one where cars account for 50% or less of all trips, at least 40% of all trips will be made using public transportation, and at least 10% of all trips by active transportation like walking and biking.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Nigeria Country Manager Oluwatoyin Oladapo

Learn More References

1. Nigeria – Country Commercial Guide https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-automotive-sector
2. Passenger Cars – Nigeria https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/passenger-cars/nigeria#unit-sales
3. Accelerating electric mobility in Nigeria https://www.energyforgrowth.org/memo/accelerating-electric-mobility-in-nigeria/#:~:text=Nigeria%20is%20building%20momentum%20for,Hyundai%20Kona%20by%20Stallion%20Motors.
4. https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigeria-to-begin-manufacturing-assembling-electric-cars-by-2023/
5. https://www.thecable.ng/naddc-in-10-years-50-of-electric-cars-on-nigerian-roads-will-be-produced-locally
6. Nigeria: Climate Transparency Report https://www.climate-transparency.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Nigeria-CT-2020.pdf
7. 2050 Long-Term Vision for Nigeria https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Nigeria_LTS1.pdf