Research Study: “Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ukraine for 2030 and Beyond—Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences” (2015)
Experts from the state organization, “Institute for Economics and Forecasting, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences,” conducted research to forecast greenhouse gases emissions in Ukraine for 2030. The Study’s projections are based on a business as usual (BAU) scenario and low-carbon scenario for the development of the energy industry in Ukraine. The current study also includes a detailed description of the conditions and risks of these scenarios implementation.
According to the BAU scenario, GHG emissions in 2030 will be within 348-434 mln t CO2-eq. (42,1-52,5% from 1990) while in 2012, they accounted for 353 mln t CO2 (42,7 from 1990).
According to the low-carbon scenario achieving indicative targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy GHG emissions in 2030 will be 300 mln t CO2-eq. (63,7% less than in 1990). This would contribute to building a low-carbon model for Ukraine’s development. Moreover, implementation of planned energy efficiency and renewable energy targets and setting middle or high carbon prices will allow additional reduction of GHG emissions.
Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, Ukraine, like other countries, submitted its INDC, which stipulates the goal of not exceeding, 60% of country’s 1990 level of GHG emissions in 2030. According to the results of the study, such a goal is not ambitious enough, because Ukraine can reach it with a minimal effort and has potential for making even further emission reductions.
Forecasting of the greenhouse gases emissions in Ukraine for 2030 and beyond (2015). US Agency for International Development (USAID), State Institution Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian]. http://www.menr.gov.ua/docs/klimatychna-polityka/USAID_MERP.docx
View of Climate Policy in the Countries of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia http://infoclimate.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Climate-CAN-EECCA-2015-EN.pdf