Possibility of Ratification by 2018: High
Mexico has a ratification mechanism very similar to the US: after the President (or in this case, the head Secretary of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources) has signed the agreement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has to send it to the Senate for its analysis, evaluation and eventually, its approval. Once the Senate has approved the agreement, it publishes an official act that allows the Executive to ratify it.
Mexico’s Senate hasn’t received the Paris Agreement for its endorsement yet; however, due to the increasing international pressure to ratify the Agreement before the end of the year, it will probably be discussed on the Senate’s next session, which will take place in September.
Currently, the 128 member Upper House is majorly composed by right wing parties, such as PAN, the Ecological Party and PRI (President Enrique Peña Nieto’s party) summing up almost 80% of the seats in the Senate. All of these parties have written commitment as well as public declarations regarding their posture in favor of the implementation of climate change related policies, which means that the ratification of the Paris Agreement by the Senate will happen without much impediment.
Submitted by Climate Scorecard Country Manager Raiza Pilatowsky