Türkiye is heading toward a much hotter, generally drier climate.

Türkiye is heading toward a considerably hotter and generally drier climate. Türkiye is getting warmer, rainfall is becoming less predictable, droughts are becoming more important, and extreme heat is occurring more often. At the same time, heavy rainfall and floods remain a serious threat. This is not simply a question of whether Türkiye will have “more” or “less” rain in the future. The bigger issue is that weather is becoming more unpredictable and extreme. 

The clearest sign of climate change is rising temperature. According to Türkiye’s General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM), the country’s average temperature in 2024 was 15.6°C, which was 1.7°C above the 1991–2020 average. This made 2024 the hottest year on record for the 1971–2024 period, narrowly exceeding the previous record from 2010. Türkiye received 6.3% less precipitation in 2024 than its long-term average, with most regions receiving less rain than normal. 

Climate models indicate that this trend will continue. Türkiye could be around 3°C warmer by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, and as much as 5.5°C warmer under a high-emissions scenario. Annual precipitation could also decline by around 5% under the moderate scenario and 15% under the high-emissions scenario. Exact numbers differ between climate models, but the overall message is consistent: Türkiye is heading toward a considerably hotter, generally drier climate. Meanwhile, cold spells are expected to become less frequent. Türkiye will not stop having cold winters, but the number of very cold days is expected to decline. 

Extreme heat can affect human health, outdoor workers, roads, buildings and electricity infrastructure. It also increases the need for air conditioning, pushing up electricity demand during the hottest periods of the year. In other words, Türkiye is likely to spend less energy dealing with extreme cold and increasingly more energy dealing with extreme heat.

Water could become one of the country’s most important climate concerns. Türkiye already has fewer water resources than many countries. Climate projections point toward more frequent and more severe droughts. Under the high-emissions scenario, drought intensity is expected to increase significantly toward the end of the century. For Türkiye, this means that climate change is also a food and water-security issue.

It may seem contradictory, but Türkiye can become drier while still experiencing serious floods. The climate projections show that heavy rainfall patterns will change across Türkiye. In some northern areas, heavy precipitation is expected to become more important even while average rainfall decreases elsewhere. For cities, drainage systems, roads and other infrastructure will also need to cope with increasingly unpredictable and intense rainfall.

Wildfires are another major concern. The assessments show a 20–40% increase in weather conditions favorable to forest fires under the high-emissions scenario during the later part of this century. This creates a worrying cycle: climate change increases wildfire risk, while large fires can themselves release additional greenhouse gases and reduce the country’s ability to store carbon.

The country has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2053, pledging to cut projected emissions by 41% by 2030. Türkiye has aggressively built out solar, wind, and geothermal infrastructure, which now make up over half of its total installed power capacity. On the agricultural front, modernizing farm irrigation has helped, yet central aquifers continue to be depleted faster than rain can refill them. Advanced early-warning systems for floods and forest fires are also helping communities prepare for severe weather. 

The country’s climate action plan describes renewable energy, particularly wind power, as an important part of this transition. However, renewable energy is not immune to climate change. Wind turbines depend on weather conditions. Changes in wind speed can affect how much electricity turbines produce, while higher temperatures can slightly reduce the efficiency of turbines.

This means Türkiye faces a double challenge: it needs to expand renewable energy to fight climate change while also ensuring renewable-energy infrastructure can withstand a changing climate.

One of Türkiye’s biggest priorities should be turning climate projections into on-the-ground action. Knowing that droughts and heatwaves will become more frequent matters, but taking action, adapting agricultural practices, improving water management, and making infrastructure more climate-resilient matters even more.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Turkiye Country Manager, Ipek Gulkaya-Tasgin.